US Economic Outlook H2 2025: Steady Growth, Growing Caution

We’ve just published Forrester’s US Economic Trends And Outlook, H2 2025, report. Following is a recap of H1 and a peek at what we see ahead for H2.

The US Economy Is Strong And Continues To Grow

In 2025, the US is the biggest (nominal GDP), richest (nominal GDP per capita), and — among the G7 — fastest growing (real GDP growth) major economy. The IMF projects that the US economy will exceed $30 trillion in 2025, with 1.9% real GDP growth outpacing other large, developed economies.

How The US Economy Fared In H1 2025

The US economy performed relatively well in the first half (H1) of 2025. That’s despite worries of a potential recession, rising tariff uncertainty, and delayed decision-making by businesses, households, investors, and central banks. Import front-loading boosted spending in H1 as households and businesses accelerated purchases in anticipation of tariff impacts.

After declining by 0.5% in the first quarter (Q1) due to strong import growth, US real GDP grew by 3.0% quarter-on-quarter at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (QoQ SAAR) in the second quarter (Q2).

In H1, US macroeconomic indicators were generally stable.

Headline CPI inflation averaged 2.6%. Modest price increases in durable and nondurable goods were offset by declining energy costs and easing inflation in services.
The US national unemployment rate averaged 4.1% in H1, which is low by historical standards.
Interest rates remained unchanged in 2025.

Still, consumers, businesses, and investors remain concerned about the economic outlook for the rest of the year. Forrester’s monthly Consumer Pulse survey data indicates that consumers remain concerned about the direction of the economy, inflation, and their personal financial situation.

The US Outlook For H2 2025

In the second half (H2) of 2025, economists expect that:

Real GDP growth will moderate, although it is still projected to grow.
Headline CPI inflation may increase to 3.0% in Q3 and 3.1% in Q4, up from 2.5% in Q2.
The unemployment rate may edge up slightly to 4.3% in Q3 and 4.4% in Q4, from 4.2% in Q2.
Interest rates will decrease by 0.5%.

Take The Next Step

If you’re a Forrester client, see further insights in the US Economic Trends And Outlook, H2 2025 report and schedule a guidance session or inquiry with me to learn how this could impact your organization.

If you’re not yet a client but are in the midst of — or about to start — annual budgeting, consult our Budget Planning Guides 2026 resources to help you plan for 2026.