Leading Through War-Driven Chaos
The last few years have been defined by compounding uncertainty. From the COVID‑19 pandemic to the 2025 US tariff escalations, along with the ongoing war in Ukraine now entering its fourth year, enterprise leaders have had to navigate relentless geopolitical and economic pressure. These shocks forced organizations to strengthen their scenario planning, cost discipline, and risk management capabilities.
Yet even in a world already conditioned by conflict, the current war in the Middle East introduces a different magnitude of disruption and one that accelerates uncertainty faster than existing operating models can absorb. Armed conflicts change the character of uncertainty itself. This uncertainty, often called the “fog of war,” stems from incomplete information, rapid shifts in power, and emotional strain. It creates economic instability from destroyed infrastructure, collapsed investments, and disrupted supply chains, ultimately causing life to feel fragile and unpredictable.
Whether you are experiencing war from your office desk, through media consumption, or directly in conflict zones, you are wrapped in a fog of uncertainty. Additionally, this uncertainty creates challenges for decision-makers: How much will oil prices rise? What does this mean for stock markets and investment flows? War, unfortunately, is not new, but the potential scale of an economic shock from newly rising fuel prices could drive significant pressure on operating margins.
The impact of the war in the Middle East is already evident. One such example is Southwest Airlines. The CEO recently stated that ticket prices will likely rise for customers due to the increase in fuel costs that will directly impact the airline’s operating expense. Similarly, UBS released a statement that the organization will be closely monitoring action through the Strait of Hormuz and the impact of a higher oil price on inflation and growth. What does this mean for CIOs? In the immediate future, budget reductions to protect operating expense, slower approvals on discretionary spend, and pressure to defer technical debt and AI investment.
Why Chaos Breaks Familiar Operating Models
Most enterprise operating models assume that stress builds slowly enough for leaders to stay in control. Organizations design their operating models around this assumption that change and demand increase incrementally. Therefore, even during periods of intense volatility, IT leaders could assess impacts, convene governance forums, and sequence decisions in a controlled way.
Much to our dismay, war collapses those assumptions. Pressure now arrives faster and more continuously. Governance designed for gradual pressure will lag or break. Decisions must be made before clarity exists. Multiple decisions must be made at once. Assumptions age out faster than review cycles. Employees quietly recalibrate their own sense of risk while leadership debates options. The result is rarely visible panic. More often, it shows up as hesitation, slower execution, and an accumulation of cognitive strain that drags on performance.
Adding more governance layers will not fix an inadequate operating system. In actuality, lengthening planning exercises and adding more approval layers will only widen the gap between reality and response. What works instead is decisive, simplified leadership that acknowledges uncertainty and moves forward without being paralyzed by it.
Scenario Planning Has Never Been More Critical
In wartime, scenario planning becomes a central focus much like activating your DR plan in the event of a data center outage. Leaders cannot rely on predictions or long planning cycles; they need ready-to-execute responses they can activate as conditions shift. What does this mean right now? A robust prioritization discipline is absolutely critical to quickly decide which items are noncritical and can be deferred.
Scenario planning is valuable because it prepares employees for diverse outcomes. Complexity works against this goal. Rather than creating 20 or 30 scenarios, which overwhelm and confuse your workforce, executives should focus on a small set of potential responses. This helps guide decisions and gives teams confidence amid uncertainty. Equally important, leaders should revisit these scenarios often, as they may expire quickly in volatile times. People need repetition and clarity on how to handle potential situations that may arise. Employees do not need reassurance that leaders have predicted the future. They need confidence that leadership is prepared for whatever is to come.
Leading People Who Are Carrying the World With Them
Enterprise organizations are not insulated from war. The impacts of war permeate organizations as employees bring fear, empathy, anger, and exhaustion into the workplace. These emotions and attitudes shape their organization’s culture and productivity. The worst way for a leader to handle this scenario? Ignore the humanness and reality of the situation.
Strong leaders address these emotions directly, without theatrics. They reduce complexity and stabilize behavior. They simplify what matters by refocusing and narrowing priorities, removing nonessential work that does not directly support the top priorities, and making explicit trade-offs. They prioritize clear communication, which helps organizations respond coherently and not emotionally. Why is this important? To protect decision quality and sustain performance when cognitive load is high.
The Bottom Line
War-driven chaos is a different operating environment altogether.
Leaders cannot shape geopolitical outcomes, but they can shape how their organizations operate under uncertainty. Enterprises endure when executives pair decisiveness with discipline and pair operational rigor with human awareness. When the external environment becomes unstable, people look to leadership for cues about what still holds. Even if each individual employee is not actively thinking about the war itself, any shifts in priorities or funding due to operating margin impacts from the war will cause uncertainty about the stability of their jobs. This unquestionably impacts performance if the employee becomes worried about their fate.
Those who recognize that responsibility and act on it will keep their organizations moving, even as chaos ensues.
I’d like to thank my colleague, Callie Smith, who contributed greatly to this blog. If you would like to discuss this topic with us further, please contact me!
