Bitcoin Battles for a New Bull Trend Amid Venezuela Volatility

Bitcoin (BTC) launches its first comeback move in months as geopolitics excites world assets.

Bitcoin price gains see a return to $93,000 after a nearly month-long absence, but traders are skeptical.

A key golden cross is almost here on the four-hour chart, paving the way for further market strength.

Venezuela reactions form the key focus for risk-asset traders this week.

US labor-market data is due as expectations of a Fed rate cut this month fade.

Bitcoin whales remain active sellers, upping distribution over the new year.

Bitcoin price breakout or sub-$80,000 next?

Bitcoin is finally giving bulls some relief this week as BTC price action reacts favorably to geopolitical events — will it last?

That question is getting some serious attention from traders and commentators as BTC/USD hits $93,000 for the first time since Dec. 11.

Data from TradingView shows that Bitcoin has gained as much as 6.6% over the past five days.

“Price will unlikely recover straight from here,” trader CrypNuevo argued in a thread on X.

CrypNuevo likened current price action to October 2019, predicting that the price would continue to hunt nearby liquidity on exchange order books.

“The structure is identical and price did a liquidity run before sweeping the lows, and then pumped,” he continued. 

“I think we’ll sweep the lows with or without the liquidity run.”

That would imply a trip below $80,000 for the first time since last April. On the way down, two “gaps” in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market could provide initial targets.

“Two CME gaps are sitting below price at $90,500–$91,600 and $88,200–$88,800,” Bitcoin education resource Coin Bureau confirmed.

The latest data from monitoring resource CoinGlass, meanwhile, puts 24-hour crypto short liquidations at $250 million. Liquidity was piled high into the weekly close, with $93,700 bulls’ next upside target.

Commenting on data from one of its proprietary trading tools, Keith Alan, cofounder of trading platform Material Indicators, saw more interesting price action next.

A “wall” of sell orders, which previously sat at $100,000, is no longer in place.

“Now the fun begins,” Alan told X followers, with a chart showing increased buying from smaller Bitcoin whales.

Bitcoin golden cross close to confirmation

A 5% BTC price rebound may sound modest by typical crypto market standards, but the trend implications could be significant.

Analyzing simple (SMA) and exponential (EMA) moving averages gives Bitcoin bulls reason for optimism above $90,000.

For the first time since $114k, Bitcoin is trading above its 4-hour 200 moving average cloud.

This is an accomplishment for the bulls.

So long as they can keep price above the MA cloud.

I’ll be watching… pic.twitter.com/ntM9nlRO2a

— Caleb Franzen (@CalebFranzen) January 3, 2026

One bullish phenomenon currently playing out is the 50-period SMA crossing above the 200-period equivalent on the four-day chart. This “golden cross” signifies low-timeframe buying momentum, and would undo the “death cross” from mid-October.

On the daily chart, a golden cross is still far from reality after its own death cross hit a month later.

Taking a longer-term perspective, however, trader SuperBro notes that another pair of trendlines is already flipping green: the weekly 100-period SMA and EMA.

In previous Bitcoin bear markets, the 100-week EMA crossing under the 100-week SMA came at the start of major BTC price downside — but 2026 is proving to be different.

“Historically, the weekly 100 EMA and SMA cross deep in the bear. Each prior cycle saw a 50%+ crash to the cycle bottom within weeks,” SuperBro wrote on X.

“This is an unprecedented bullish deviation from prior cycles.”

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s 2025 performance has led to increasing claims that the four-year BTC price cycle theory is no longer valid.

Venezuela dictates market moves

All eyes are on risk assets and commodities this week as markets react to the US military move on Venezuela and its consequences.

The surprise headlines hit outside TradFi trading hours over the weekend, leaving crypto to deliver the world’s only real-time response.

The total crypto market cap has added 5% since Friday, retaking the $3 trillion mark.

More conspicuous, however, is its return to moving in the same direction as safe-haven assets gold and silver.

XAU/USD was up 2% at the time of writing on Monday, moving toward a rematch with December’s all-time highs of $4,450 per ounce.

At the same time, the implications of a potential US takeover of Venezuela’s oil and gas have sent global prices lower, while US dollar strength nears its highest levels in nearly a month.

On Sunday, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter predicted that assets across the board would “move” as TradFi traders returned. 

“Energy prices are DROPPING amid a major escalation in geopolitical tensions. This should tell you all you need to know,” it continued on X.

Kobeissi told readers to “keep watching” gold and silver.

A potential bull factor for Bitcoin in particular, meanwhile, comes from Venezuela’s BTC reserves — a topic now seeing mounting debate on social media.

While still a matter of speculation, the country is thought to have amassed a considerable Bitcoin stockpile as one way of skirting US sanctions. Figures circulating involve around 600-660,000 BTC ($55-60 billion).

“Prior to 2026, Venezuela’s official/on-chain holdings were minimal (e.g., ~240 BTC from seizures/mining reported in some trackers),” crypto analyst and commentator MartyParty noted in an X post on the topic. 

“The $60B figure refers specifically to this alleged off-the-books reserve built to bypass sanctions.”

Fed likely to hold interest rates in January

The first full trading week of 2026 contains some important US macroeconomic data releases for risk-asset sentiment.

⚡️ Key Economic Events This Week:

Monday – Market response to Venezuela developments

Tuesday – December ISM Manufacturing PMI data

Wednesday – December ADP Nonfarm Employment data, November JOLTS Job Openings data

Friday – December Jobs Report, January MI Consumer Sentiment… pic.twitter.com/SDuBtI6wlT

— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) January 5, 2026

The focus will be on employment trends, with the numbers coming at a time when the labor market continues to show stress.

This has implications for the Federal Reserve, which must decide on interest-rate changes at its Jan. 28 meeting. For risk assets, another cut would be welcome, but sentiment does not yet support that outcome.

The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool puts the odds of a minimal 0.25% cut at just 17.2%.

Despite this, analysis sees already loose financial conditions continue to support stocks — at least for the first half of the year.

“I anticipate conditions favoring the bull market to persist into the start of 2026, including a growing economy and ample liquidity supporting loose financial conditions.” trading resource Mosaic Asset Company wrote in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.”

Mosaic warned that resurgent inflation could make the tail half of 2026 very different to the first.

“I believe a major transition will be looming for the stock market, and that a rising money supply will eventually force tighter monetary policy in the world’s major economies,” it wrote.

As Cointelegraph reported, the composition of the Fed continues to shift the balance in favor of officials who support additional rate cuts, as desired by President Donald Trump.

Whales hit the “sell” button

Bitcoin’s rebound from below $90,000 may not be an easy one, thanks purely to crypto market forces.

Related: Kain Warwick loses $50K ETH bet, BitMine’s ‘1000x’ share plan: Hodler’s Digest, Dec. 21 – Jan. 3

New data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows that large-volume traders are already seeking to lock in modest profits and reduce BTC exposure.

The week beginning Dec. 29 saw monthly highs in net inflows to largest global exchange Binance, with the BTC tally alone near $1.5 billion.

“Such sizable transfers of BTC and ETH from private wallets to an exchange typically indicate one of two intentions: preparation for selling or the use of these assets as collateral in derivatives markets,” contributor CryptoOnchain wrote in a “Quicktake” blog post.

CryptoQuant warned that buying power was not matching the inflows, with stablecoin netflows “essentially flat.”

“Most of this activity reflected internal shifts—primarily USDT moving between the ERC-20 and TRC-20 networks—rather than fresh capital entering the exchange,” CryptoOnchain added.

A further QuickTake post revealed active whale selling across exchanges.

The two-week moving average of the exchange whale ratio indicator, which measures the proportion of inflows in the ten largest originating from whale entities, is now at its highest since March 2025. 

“Historically, such movements are a precursor to selling and increased supply pressure,” CryptoOnchain commented.

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