The broader trend of the market remains cautiously bearish, but oversold signals from the indicators and the proximity to key support zones suggest a potential bounce may be on the cards.
Analyst Sudeep Shah, Vice President and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research, SBI Securities interacted with ET Markets regarding the outlook on Nifty and Bank Nifty along with an index strategy for the upcoming week. Following are the edited excerpts from his chat:
What’s the current take on Market?
The benchmark Nifty index extended its losing streak for the sixth consecutive week, marking its longest stretch of weekly declines since the COVID-19 market crash in 2020. This persistent weakness underscores the prevailing bearish sentiment in the market. What stands out technically is that for the fourth week in a row, the index has formed a bearish candle with a long upper shadow. This formation signals that every attempt at a rally is being met with strong selling pressure, indicating a lack of conviction among bulls and a clear dominance of bears at higher levels.
During the week, market sentiment weakened further after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Indian goods, escalating trade tensions over India’s Russian oil imports. The mood was further dampened by weak Q1 earnings across key sectors and continued FII selling, which added to the pressure on equities.From a technical standpoint, the Nifty index continues to exhibit pronounced weakness. It is now comfortably trading below its 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day EMAs, all of which are sloping downward — a clear sign of sustained bearish momentum. Adding to the negative outlook, the RSI on the daily chart has entered a super bearish zone, as per RSI range shift principles.Further confirmation comes from the MACD indicator, which remains in bearish territory. The MACD line is quoting below both its signal line and the zero line, reinforcing the downtrend and indicating that selling pressure continues to dominate. Overall, the technical setup paints a cautious picture for the near term, with rallies likely to face resistance and selling emerging at higher levels.Talking about crucial levels, the zone of 24200-24150 will act as important support for the index as it is the confluence of the 200-day EMA level and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of its prior upward rally (21743-25669). If the index slips below the 24150 level, then it is likely to extend its southward journey upto the 23750 level. On the upside, the 100-day EMA zone of 24570-24600 will act as a crucial hurdle for the index.
How has the August series played out so far? How has it been historically for the Indian market?
Tracking seasonality, over the past 18 years, the August month has often exhibited a mixed trend for Nifty. On 9 occasions, the index has concluded on a positive note with an average gain of 3.68%, while on 9 occasions, it has ended on a negative note with an average loss of 4.45%. The average return for Nifty in the August series has been -0.39%. Over the past 18 years, August has consistently shown an average volatility of 7.30 percent for the Nifty index.
Historically, Bank Nifty has also shown a mixed trend in August over the past 18 years. Out of these, it closed positively 9 times, with an average gain of 3.57%, while ending negatively 9 times, with an average loss of 6.30%. The average return for Bank Nifty in the August series has been -1.37%. However, Bank Nifty has demonstrated an average volatility of approximately 10.08 percent for the past 18 years.
Are Trump’s tariffs likely to further dampen the sentiment?
Yes, Trump’s tariffs are likely to further dampen market sentiment, especially given the already fragile investor mood. The imposition of an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods adds a layer of geopolitical and trade uncertainty, which could weigh heavily on sectors directly impacted by exports to the U.S.
However, it’s important to note that the effective date of the tariffs is August 27, and until then, markets may remain volatile as investors closely monitor developments around potential negotiations or diplomatic responses. Any signs of easing tensions or backtracking on the decision could help limit the downside, but for now, the move adds to the list of headwinds facing the market.
What is your take on Bank Nifty? What are the key levels to watch?
The banking benchmark index Bank Nifty also ended the week on a negative note, reflecting continued weakness in the financial space. On the weekly chart, it formed a bearish candle, indicating persistent selling pressure. Over the last two sessions, the index has been hovering near its 100-day EMA.
Going forward, the 100-day EMA zone of 54950–54850 will be a critical support area. A sustained move below 54850 could intensify the downtrend, opening the gates for a decline toward the next support zone of 54000–53900. On the upside, any recovery is likely to face resistance near 55700–55800, which now acts as a key hurdle for the bulls.
Any hopes from the FII now? What do the cash segment as well as the FII long-short ratio indicate?
Given the current data, hopes from FIIs remain limited in the near term. Month-to-date, FIIs have sold equities worth 14018.87 crore, reflecting a clear risk-off approach amid global uncertainties and domestic headwinds.
Additionally, the FII long-short ratio for index futures stands at just 8.28%, the lowest in recent periods, indicating a heavily bearish positioning. This suggests that FIIs are predominantly holding short positions, reinforcing their cautious outlook on Indian equities.
However, from a contrarian perspective, such an extremely low long-short ratio could also signal that the market is oversold in the short term, and any positive trigger — such as easing global tensions or favourable domestic cues — could lead to short covering, resulting in a sharp rebound.
What’s the view on Auto and Pharma stocks?
Nifty Auto: The Nifty Auto index has been consolidating in the 24226–22916 range for the past 59 trading sessions, showing resilience amid broader market weakness. It has outperformed frontline indices recently and avoided significant correction during the broader market decline. The ratio chart vs. Nifty is at a 24-week high, highlighting relative strength. Technically, the index is trading above its 100 and 200-day EMAs, indicating a positive undertone. However, momentum indicators remain sideways, suggesting a lack of strong directional bias. Going forward, a break above 24000 could trigger a sharp rally, while the 200-day EMA zone of 23100–23050 will act as crucial support on the downside.
Nifty Pharma: The index has slipped below its 200-day EMA for the first time since May 2025, signaling a potential shift in its long-term trend. Adding to the bearish tone, the daily RSI has entered a super bearish zone, as per RSI range shift principles, indicating weakening momentum and a lack of buying interest. Given these developments, the index is likely to extend its downward trajectory over the next few trading sessions. On the downside, the support zone of 21100–21000 will be crucial. A breach below this level could accelerate selling pressure and deepen the correction.
How is the IT sector looking right now?
The Nifty IT index continues to exhibit a bearish trend, characterized by a consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows. It remains below key moving averages, indicating sustained weakness in momentum. Additionally, the daily RSI is firmly positioned in the bearish zone, as per the RSI range shift framework. Given these technical signals, the index appears poised to extend its downward trajectory over the coming trading sessions.
Are there any stocks to take defensive bets as the indices seem difficult to trade?
Technically, Kajaria Ceramics, Affle, and Pidilite Industries are looking good.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
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