In this chat, he also shares top 3 ideas for the week ahead. Edited excerpts:
Nifty ended the week about 1% lower to record sixth consecutive negative weekly falls. How bearish are we on the charts?
Nifty recorded its sixth consecutive weekly decline, marking one of the longest stretches of losses on the weekly chart. In its history, there have been very few instances where the index posted five or more consecutive weekly declines, with the longest being a nine-week fall in early 2001.
On Friday, the Nifty moved southward as it failed to sustain above the 50 EMA on the hourly chart, indicating persistent selling pressure. Additionally, the index closed below the crucial support level of 24,400, reinforcing the strength of the bears. Sentiment was already skewed towards the bearish side, with the index forming a lower-top, lower-bottom pattern. The short-term trend remains weak, with potential downside targets at 24,150–24,200 and even 24,000 or lower. On the other hand, this bearish trend is likely to reverse if the Nifty manages a decisive move above 24,660.
Do you think that the uptick that we saw in Nifty PSU Bank is sustainable or there could be profit booking ahead?
During the week, the Nifty PSU Bank Index saw a mild uptick as it found support at the 21 EMA on the weekly chart for the second consecutive week. However, given the strong bearish sentiment in the broader Indian equity market, it is difficult to expect the index to sustain above the 21-week EMA in the coming weeks. A decisive fall below 6,750 could trigger a strong downtrend in the space, while a move above 7,000 might attract fresh buying interest.
The broader market saw sharper cuts in the week. Do you think this relative underperformance could continue as traders remain cautious amid tariff-related stress?
As the tariff war between India and the US intensified, traders were quick to offload their leveraged positions in most risky midcaps and small caps, leading to sharp declines in the indices. With uncertainties persisting, further cuts appear highly likely in the short term. Technically, the index has slipped below the 21 EMA on the weekly timeframe, indicating rising bearish bets in the space. Therefore, it will be wise to remain cautious in the short term.
PG Electroplast shares fell 20% on Friday. Do you see some bottom-fishing opportunities ahead?
The stock has witnessed a sharp decline, breaking down from its recent consolidation phase. Moreover, the fall was accompanied by high volumes. The chart looks extremely weak, and further downside appears likely. Exiting on bounces seems a better strategy than attempting bottom-fishing.
Give us your top picks for the week ahead.
Buy Medanta Above 1420 | Target: 1500 | Stop-loss: 1379
The stock has given a strong breakout from recent consolidation, indicating rising optimism among investors. The RSI indicator is in a bullish crossover and trending upward, supporting positive price momentum. The stock has been sustaining above the critical moving average on the daily chart. In the short term, the price is likely to remain strong with the potential to rise towards 1500, while support is placed at 1379.
Buy CDSL Above 1565 | Target: 1620 | Stop-loss: 1520
The stock has broken out from a consolidation phase, raising the possibility of a bullish trend in the short term. A sustained move above 1565 could further strengthen the positive momentum. In the short term, the trend is expected to remain positive with potential to move towards 1620, while a fall below 1520 might weaken sentiment.
Sell Tata Motors Aug Futures around 635 | Target: 615 | Stop-loss: 646
The stock has declined from recent consolidation, triggering bearish sentiment. It is sustaining below key moving averages on both the daily and hourly charts, confirming a downtrend. Further correction looks possible from the current level, with potential to reach 615 in the short term. On the higher side, resistance is placed at 645–646; a break above this range could reverse the current trend.
