The central bank’s rate—which sets the bar for lenders’ prime rates and, by extension, variable-based borrowing products—has sat at 2.25% since October 2025, when the bank last decreased it by 25 basis points, from 2.5%. Overall, this rate has dropped 225 basis points since its peak of 5%, where it had stayed throughout 2023 and the first half of 2024, but that easing cycle has now come to an end.
The main factor behind the Bank’s decision making is the war in Iran and its effect on oil prices and inflation. Ever since the Strait of Hormuz was shut to tankers on February 28, it’s become a whole lot pricier to fill up at the gas pump, and that’s starting to make a mark on Canadian inflation data. The most recent March Consumer Price Index report showed that year-over-year inflation spiked to 2.4%, from 1.8% in February—largely due to rising energy prices.
The Bank’s Policy Makers have stated that they’re willing to look past this specific price shock—and keep rates unchanged—as long as it doesn’t start to creep into other spending categories.
But this reassurance could be short-lived. Unless the war comes to an (unlikely) swift end, it’s inevitable that supply chain snarls will add price pressure to any goods being trucked or flown—and that’s not counting the fuel-shortage snafus already impacting global travel.
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In the opening statement preceding last Wednesday’s rate announcement, BoC governor Tiff Macklem said that if oil prices remain elevated, so too does the risk of overall higher inflation. “If this starts to happen, monetary policy will have more work to do—there may be a need for consecutive increases in the policy rate,” he said.
This hawkish statement has raised expectations that the Bank may hike its rate again before the end of 2026, perhaps adding as much as 50 basis points to borrowing costs. This would immediately increase rates and payments for anyone holding a variable-rate mortgage, HELOC, and certain types of personal loans.
But—and this is where the message gets muddled for borrowers—there are still plenty of economic risks at play that, in the absence of the war, would be prompting the bank to cut rates instead.
US-imposed tariffs and erratic trade policy remain the biggest headwinds. While Canada has absorbed these shocks better than many countries, the renegotiation of the United-States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) looms large on July 1. Should this key trade pact fall through and expose Canadian goods currently protected from tariffs, it would plunge the economy back into negative territory. That would cause a tough stagflation conundrum for our central bank, forcing it to increase rates while jobs and growth suffer.
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It’s a tightrope the BoC will need to balance as these factors play out in the months to come. Meanwhile, here’s what this latest rate hold means for consumers, whether they’re shopping for a mortgage, looking to take out a loan, or hope to boost their savings.
What the BoC’s rate hold means if you’re a mortgage borrower
Those most directly impacted by the BoC’s rate decisions are borrowers who already have variable-rate mortgages. Because the BoC’s rate influences lenders’ prime rates—which variable mortgage rates are based on plus or minus a percentage—any tweaks made to this benchmark borrowing cost are reflected immediately in variable mortgage rates. Depending on the type of variable mortgage you have, this either means your monthly payment will change, or the portions of that payment that go towards servicing interest costs and paying down your principal amount.
However, this latest hold also has implications for anyone shopping for a variable-rate mortgage. The leading market rates (currently as low as 3.35% for a five-year term) won’t change, offering borrowers a lower-priced option than today’s fixed mortgage rates. For those who can tolerate the possibility of future rising rates, variable options offer the best value today.
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Fixed mortgage rates, while not directly mandated by the BoC’s moves, are still heavily influenced by its rate policy via reaction to it in the bond market. This is because fixed mortgage rate pricing is based on bond yields, the part of the bond investment that’s paid out at the end of the term. Yields rise and fall alongside market sentiment; they increase when investors sense risk and demand a higher premium to take out bonds. This tends to be the case when markets expect higher central bank rates are coming. In this case, both bond yields and fixed mortgage rates have steadily increased since mid-March, and yields are staying firmly elevated following the latest rate announcement.
Those who are already locked into a fixed-rate mortgage won’t be impacted by these price changes until their term is up—and it’s anyone’s guess how the interest rate environment will change over the next few years. Those currently shopping, meanwhile, have slightly less attractive options compared to earlier this year.
The takeaway for anyone needing a mortgage, whether as a first-time buyer or coming up for renewal, is to take out a rate hold and pre-approval as soon as possible. This will secure access to today’s current rate pricing for up to 120 days, protecting borrowers from any potential rate increases during that time frame.
What the BoC rate means for Canadians savings
Perhaps the only people hoping for a central bank rate hike are passive savers and investors; this is because the BoC’s rate also impacts the rate of return on products such as high-interest savings accounts (HISAs), as well as investments like Guaranteed Investment Certificates (GICs).
Rates for both will remain unchanged as a result of this latest rate hold, and growing narrative that hikes could come later this year will further pad savers’ accounts. It’s a small sense of stability, amid a decidedly-not economic backdrop.
