Primary runoff elections in Texas show that the two most dangerous threats to incumbent politicians are Donald Trump and AIPAC.
Let’s start with the Republican primary for U.S. Senate.
Trump Backed Paxton beats Cornyn
This wasn’t even close. Paxton won all but 2 of Texas’ 254 counties:
pic.twitter.com/GBfBHeeMBP
— Nat Wilson Turner (@natwilsonturner) May 27, 2026
A newly copper-topped Ken Paxton thanked Trump, calling him “the most powerful force in politics”:
Paxton thanked Trump: “When everyone in Washington told him to abandon me and abandon the people of Texas, he didn’t listen. Instead, President Trump gave me his complete and total endorsement. President Trump is the leader of our party, and his endorsement is the most powerful… https://t.co/8qfliQR8sD
— Craig Caplan (@CraigCaplan) May 27, 2026
And why did Trump back Cornyn’s rival? NBC summed it up:
Unlike Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., another recent Trump target who lost his primary, Cornyn voted to acquit Trump on impeachment charges in 2021. But he remained deeply critical of the Capitol riot and argued in subsequent years that Trump shouldn’t run again in 2024, calling him unelectable and backing a new direction for the GOP.
Months later, as Trump was dominating early primaries and cruising to the nomination, Cornyn backtracked and endorsed him.
Profile in courage.
The NYT had multiple takes on the race:
In the Senate race, Mr. Paxton tore at Mr. Cornyn and the establishment wing of the party that he represents. Mr. Cornyn responded by drawing attention to his opponent’s ongoing divorce — which has included allegations of adultery — and releasing ads featuring an AI-generated Mr. Paxton and two faceless women who were not his wife.…More than $128 million was spent on advertising in the Senate race alone, with most supporting the ultimately doomed task of trying to save Mr. Cornyn. Millions more poured into the state attorney general race in its final days.
Republican candidates also engaged in new forms of name-calling, occasionally blending their insults with the party’s recent embrace of anti-Muslim rhetoric.
So does this mean Democratic nominee James Talarico has a chance?
Can Democrats Take the Senate via Texas?
TIME’s Philip Elliott claims Paxton blew a $250 million hole in the GOP national budget:
For more than a year, Republicans beseeched President Donald Trump’s advisers in the White House with a simple ask: if he couldn’t find his way to endorsing Sen. John Cornyn, could he at least keep his mouth shut?
Of course, he could not. Trump last week endorsed Cornyn’s primary opponent in Texas, state Attorney General Ken Paxton, and on Tuesday Paxton made it through his contentious, costly run-off and into the general election this November. Senate Republicans spent $90 million on defending their amiable colleague and sinking the scandal-soaked Paxton. They failed, and are now left with the jarring reality that they had hoped to avoid: $250 million. That’s the internal price tag being circulated among Republicans for the task of helping Paxton to hold the seat—all at the expense of chasing flipping Democratic seats in places like Georgia, Michigan, or New Hampshire.
The NYT’s Nate Cohn argues Democrats have a real chance to take the seat:
extraordinary demographic shifts have put Texas Republicans in a much more vulnerable position. To an extent few would have imagined a decade ago, Texas’ status as a reliably Republican state now depends on elevated levels of support among Hispanic voters.
In the latest national polls, Mr. Trump’s gains among Hispanic voters have vanished — and the Republican grip on Texas is in danger as a result. The latest New York Times/Siena poll is representative: It shows Democrats ahead by 30 points, 54 percent to 24 percent, among Hispanic registered voters nationwide. That’s better than Joe Biden’s margin in 2020 and getting close to Hillary Clinton’s margin in 2016.…Alone, major Democratic gains among Hispanic voters would be enough to make Texas a plausible battleground in November. Now consider the party’s expected gains among other demographic groups — including white voters — in this national political environment, and suddenly the conditions would seem to be in place for a Democratic breakthrough.…Democrats have made significant gains among Texas’ white voters during the Trump era. For comparison, the gains are basically equivalent to those Democrats made among white voters in Georgia, which drove that state toward the left over the same period.
The Democratic gains among white Texas voters would have been enough to make Texas competitive in 2024, if everything else had stayed constant. Of course, everything else did not stay constant: Mr. Trump made even larger gains among nonwhite voters, especially Hispanic ones, canceling out Democratic gains — and more. Now, those gains have been reversed.
And what about that other force in American politics?
Cornyn did his best to be the AIPAC candidate in the race, but it wasn’t enough:
John Cornyn’s digital media team, Harris Media LLC, proudly lists Netanyahu and his party on their client list.
Like… Cornyn is literally paying a Likud contractor to produce ads for him calling Tucker Carlson a traitor and demanding that Ken Paxton denounce him. https://t.co/EWgaXBAJM4 pic.twitter.com/7VjHnjFCOb
— Mel (@Villgecrazylady) April 10, 2026
The Texas Tribune had more on the dark money role in the race in a post that is just too information rich to quote adequately here.
The Tribune points out some of Cornyn’s top donors including:
Former President George W. BushHis $5,000 donation to Cornyn was his first political donation to a federal candidate in Texas since the 2022 cycle. That year, he also donated $125,000 to his nephew, George P. Bush, who challenged Paxton in the attorney general primary and lost in a runoff.
Rupert MurdochMurdoch gave Cornyn $200,000 on New Year’s Eve.
They also listed some of the dark money backing Cornyn via the Texans for a Conservative Majority PAC:
Ohio Works Inc. + America Works Fund Inc.: $8.6M…funded (as of 2024) by oil and gas-linked groups, Republican leaders in Washington and one Texan — Dallas billionaire Kenneth Fisher
Stephen Schwarzman: $1.5MSchwarzman is the billionaire CEO of Blackstone
Jim and Robson Walton: $1MThe Walton brothers, Arkansas billionaire heirs to the Walmart fortune, each gave $500,000 to the PAC.
Paxton’s top money marks include:
Michael RydinThe retired Houston software developer, a major funder for right-wing movements, gave Paxton $17,000. … He has given over $1 million to the Freedom Caucus Fund…
Darwin and Doug DeasonDarwin, the late information technology billionaire, and his son, Doug, have been massive Republican donors and contributors to Paxton over the years.
Paxton also enjoyed PAC support, notably from the Lone Star Liberty PAC whose donors include:
Jonathan Knutz: $1.1MKnutz is the CEO of a medical device company in Houston.
Preserve Texas Inc.: $950,000This Virginia-based dark money group was formed shortly after Paxton launched his Senate bid.
Gary Heavin: $500,000Heavin is a Waco area-based businessman and founder of the Curves fitness chain. An anti-abortion advocate…
Chelsey Milton: $500,000Milton, an Arizona homemaker, is a Trump donor whose husband was pardoned last year by the president. Trevor Milton, who gave Paxton an additional $100,000, was previously the CEO of an electric vehicle manufacturing company. In 2022, he was found guilty of securities fraud and wire fraud in federal court and sentenced to four years in prison. The couple donated more than $1.8 million to a pro-Trump group; Trump pardoned Trevor Milton in early 2025.
Two Toads LLC / SSC Inc. / Baloney Feathers LTD: $300,000These mysterious groups each gave $100,000 to the PAC on March 17. Each is registered to the same PO Box address in Lubbock, and none have made any political contributions beyond Lone Star Liberty PAC.
We’ll let our rulers return to the shadows now as we preview Paxton vs Talarico.
Talarico Aiming for Cornyn Voters
Per Politico:
Donald Trump etched another notch in his kingmaker’s crown with Texas AG Ken Paxton headed to a showdown with James Talarico — a move Democrats believe could be his Senate majority’s undoing.
Tuesday night was a big one for Talarico’s campaign, which told Playbook exclusively that in the first two hours following Paxton’s win, the Democrat hauled in $600,000 — the strongest two hours of his entire campaign, which ended the first quarter raising $27 million and $10 million cash-on-hand.
Talarico told Playbook last night that to win in November, he’ll have to convert supporters of Sen. John Cornyn — a conservative by almost any metric, except when measured against Paxton. After Cornyn conceded, Talarico told his supporters “you have a place in our campaign.”
It’s all part of his general election pitch.
“I have a legislative record that I think has a lot to offer supporters of Senator Cornyn. Ken Paxton has a criminal record. I have a legislative record,” Talarico said of his freshly anointed opponent after the results came in. (Paxton struck a deal where he paid restitution and securities fraud felony charges were dropped). “I’ve called out the extremes in both parties, on the right and left, and as you know, called out President Biden for failing to secure our southern border,” he added. “I’ve pushed back against national Democrats who want to hurt the Texas oil and gas industry.”
“I think I have a strong case to make to Senator Cornyn supporters.”
GOP Leans Into Ad Hominem
Per Mediaite:
Republican National Committee Chair Joe Gruters went off on Texas Senate candidate James Talarico (D) on Wednesday morning, branding him a “creep” who wants to “mutilate” kids and is a vegan — a cardinal sin in the Lone Star State.
Gruters skewered Talarico during an interview on Newsmax. He also tapped into his inner President Donald Trump and dubbed him “Talafreako” — a nickname he also used during an interview on Fox News a day earlier.
Wake Up America co-host Sharla McBride asked Gruters how the RNC plans on keeping Texas red. Gruters said it was simple — everything about Talarico is revolting to true Texans.
Talarico denies the vegan allegations saying “He’s Been ‘Eating Barbecue Since Before Ken Paxton’s First Indictment’.”
He also has a planned pivot off the “freako” allegations:
Reporter: Ken Paxton has taken to calling you ‘Talafreako’@JamesTalarico: If Ken Paxton is worried about freaks, he should stop giving Epstein-style sweetheart deals to pedophiles. This is the guy who just released Adam Hoffman from jail, an admitted child rapist, after one of… pic.twitter.com/LZNqXn7LXn
— Team Talarico (@TeamTalaricoHQ) May 27, 2026
And as for the controversial Adam Hoffman, Esquire, Houston Public Media has background:
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is under fire for a plea deal his prosecutors offered last month to a Waco man charged with repeatedly sexually abusing a young boy.
The deal in the case, which Paxton’s office took over about three years ago after the locally elected district attorney recused himself, would have let the man plead guilty to two misdemeanors and serve a total of just one day in jail.
Paxton’s office did not respond to emailed questions for this story. A spokesperson pointed to a letter that two of his prosecutors who worked on the case sent to Leach last week, in which they explained that the case went to trial last year but ended in a hung jury, and the young victim did not want to testify a second time.
“The child emphasized that he preferred to move on with his life and prioritize his mental and emotional health,” wrote the prosecutors, Brenda Cantu and Dorian Cotlar.
Beyond Paxton’s immediate political rivals, the deal has attracted criticism from local officials in Waco, including the McLennan County district attorney, a state representative from the area and even the judge presiding over the matter.
Now let’s look at AIPAC’s role in the Democratic primary run-offs in Texas.
When AIPAC Wins We All Lose
pic.twitter.com/oDtEC6Lwd6
— Nat Wilson Turner (@natwilsonturner) May 27, 2026
And why did AIPAC want to oust Al Green?
last year, for the first time in US history, an amendment was proposed for a full arms embargo on Israel by MTG. 5 others voted for it: Thomas Massie, Al Green, Ilhan Omar, Rashida Tlaib and Summer Lee. The Israel lobby and the Zionist media and political class that dominates… pic.twitter.com/3cti646ISs
— ☀️👀 (@zei_squirrel) May 27, 2026
AIPAC wasn’t alone in supporting Menefee. The new Democratic nominee also enjoyed the support of Crypto-backed U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett — who lost the Senate primary to James Talarico. Per Politico:
Crockett has become a key surrogate for Rep. Christian Menefee in a primary runoff contest against fellow Democratic Rep. Al Green, as well as for former Rep. Colin Allred against Rep. Julie Johnson.
In the Houston-based TX-18, where Crockett is backing Menefee, the crypto-aligned super PAC Protect Progress has spent $3.7 million on two ads supporting the recently-elected U.S. representative against the fellow Congressional Black Caucus member 40 years his senior — both of which feature Crockett’s endorsement.
That’s all for today. See y’all next week.
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