A wish list for Carney’s fall budget

But things changed in the second quarter as Canada’s economy weakened. This has put the spotlight on the weakness of Canadians’ income and savings in the face of change. It also provides an important opportunity for the November 4 federal budget to protect financial well-being in the months ahead.  

The income gap reaches a new high

The income gap, which is the difference in the share of disposable income between households in the top 40% and the bottom 40% of income distribution, is a common measure that makes the news. It was at a record high of 49% in the first quarter, with a slight reduction in Q2, and has been increasing every year since the pandemic. 

Interest rates have had a lot to do with this. Fortunately, for the first time since 2022, household interest payments declined by almost 5% in Q1. Disposable income, therefore, increased for those indebted households. 

Then the U.S. tariffs entered the economic picture. Lower-earning households tend to suffer the most during periods of uncertainty and this is holding true now. Statistics Canada reported declining average wages, mainly due to reduced hours of work in Q1. Those working in mining and manufacturing, professional and personal services were particularly affected. 

For the lowest-income households, income grew at a faster-than-average pace (+5.6%) in the second quarter. But on closer inspection, this was actually due to an increase in government transfers including Employment Insurance (EI), social assistance, and retirement benefits.  

Unfortunately, tax collections—the very source of these payments in the future— will decline too. The Parliamentary Budget Office projects a lower nominal GDP (which measures the size of the tax base), averaging $12.9 billion less annually from 2025 to 2029. This too is due to the impact of tariffs.

The government plans to increase taxes for some as well as penalties and fines and resulting interest charges to bolster its revenues. However, a more positive, proactive approach is to make income- and wealth-building easier. That starts with getting back to the basics.

Diversification of investments matters    

Despite a good start in the first quarter of the year (Q1), Canadians’ financial well-being was affected by the impact of tariffs imposed in the second quarter (Q2). Consider the following investing trends:

Lower-income households tend to earn interest income. Net investment income dropped the most for low-income households. The decline in investment earnings (-35.3%) more than offset the decline in interest payments (-7.1%). Second-quarter outcomes were similar.

Higher-earning households have more diversified portfolios, holding more equities. These produce more tax-efficient capital gains and dividend income. These households’ net worth grew as the value of their financial assets increased by 7.1% in Q1—close to three times the rate of inflation—and 9.6% in Q2. These families also had limited growth in mortgage debt (+1.9%).

As a result, by the end of the second quarter, the wealthiest 20% of households had accumulated almost two-thirds (64.8%) of Canada’s total net worth, averaging $3.4 million per household. The bottom 40% of households accounted for 3.3% of total net worth, averaging $86,900.  

As a special wealth-builder category, homeowners experienced lower borrowing costs and lower inflation and this resulted in more savings as debt reduction in Q1. Still, personal net worth declined for younger Canadians and those without investment portfolios, because real estate values also declined.

The wealthy will be OK, others need help

What can we learn from this? The wealthiest households can continue to increase their net worth, even if incomes are interrupted or don’t keep up with inflation and debt servicing costs are threatened by unemployment, incapacity, or retirement. That’s because their investment earnings and capital appreciation make up for the income gap.  

Where are the opportunities for lower-income households? There are two. In the face of the same issues, it is critical to be able to continue to save consistently. Second, it is important to earn more tax-efficient investment income.

This is where government policy comes in. It seems to be an easy ask for some to pay more tax, but that can result in brain drain, reduced incentives work or innovate, and the flight of capital. The real opportunity in the next federal budget is to help all Canadians build both income and wealth, against the backdrop of economic uncertainty, and to do so with the help of knowledgeable professionals.

Building income and capital: a six-part plan

Tax and financial literacy is elusive but critical to the prosperity of Canadians. Having the knowledge, skills, and confidence to make responsible financial decisions enables people to plan ahead and deal with increasingly complex systems that are a barrier to accessing income supplements through tax refunds, credits, and social benefits. 

To that end, here’s my six-point wish list. Perhaps you’d like to add to it?

Protection for interest earnings. Periods of high interest rates to combat inflation are particularly damaging to average households that earn interest income. If this monetary policy is necessary, protect those fragile savings from both inflation and taxes. Bring back the $1,000 investment income deduction, eliminated in 1987, to do so.  

Deduction for professional help. Canadians need help with their tax and financial literacy. They won’t get that interacting with online help alone, no matter how good it is. Especially at a time the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) is pushing for increased digitization, helping individuals better understand basic tax planning—what comes first, an RRSP, a TFSA or FHSA, for example—can bolster lifelong wealth-building habits and help to diversify their investments. To remove barriers to professional help, make income tax preparation and financial planning costs tax-deductible.

Waive CRA penalties and interest from auto-filing. Even though the federal government is touting automatic tax filing for 5.5 million of the lowest-income Canadians by 2028, in reality, navigating both tax and digital complexity underlying this initiative may be unattainable for most targeted filers. Imagine the repayment nightmare for years to come (remember CERB?) if these tax returns are incorrect. The CRA should be empowered to permanently waive interest or penalties resulting from honest errors in automatic tax filing processes. 

Help young people start saving. Young workers are most susceptible to job loss but have the most to gain from increased compounding time in their investments. By enabling matching grants for start-up savings for the first five years after post-secondary education, similar to the grants available for registered education savings plan (RESP) and registered disability savings plan (RDSP) savings, sound saving habits could be encouraged with a New Graduate Savings Plan.   

Recognize community service as a tax deduction. Younger Canadians aged 15 to 24 are most likely to volunteer, while those over age 65 volunteer the most hours. Keeping track of volunteer hours is not much more onerous than keeping track of dollars donated to charity. The resulting tax savings could help with community wealth creation. The Liberals had proposed a Health Care Workers Hero Tax Credit in their party platform. This should be extended to those who volunteer to help others with tax preparation and financial planning, by expanding the charitable donation credit. 

Change retirement savings options. Most people know that the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) alone will not fund their retirement, even with the higher premiums workers and their employers are now paying. Rising CPP premiums squeeze out cash flows needed to fund a tax-free savings account (TFSA), which ensures a tax-free retirement. Required matching premiums also make it difficult for employers to give raises or increase staffing. One way to improve cash flow for more private savings is to increase take-home pay. Governments should encourage TFSA savings by making contributions tax deductible for both employees and employers who contribute to their employees’ accounts.

Read more about tax planning:

About Evelyn Jacks, RWM, MFA, MFA-P, FDFS

Evelyn Jacks is President of Knowledge Bureau, a world-class financial education institute where readers can take micro-credentials in Financial Literacy, the Fundamentals of Income Tax Preparation, and earn career-enhancing Specialized Credentials, all online.