Elections are this Sunday in Armenia in a contest that is in large part about which direction the country will take on the geopolitical stage: toward “the West” or remaining with Russia.
The current government headed by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is clear on its preferred course: full steam ahead for the EU regardless of the consequences. The opposition prefers continued strong ties with Moscow, which means an end for now of the idea of joining the EU.
For what it’s worth, Armenian polls show Pashinyan leading, although not by enough to form a single-party government. Regardless, it’s a lose-lose situation for Armenia.
If Pashinyan wins it is expected that relations with Russia will be further poisoned bringing serious economic pain. If Pashinyan loses, well, all bets are off. Western governments have already accused Russia of meddling, which is usually a precursor to a refusal to accept the results if the other side wins.
Russia has surely made its preference clear, and it’s not the only one.
Outside Meddling
Moscow has made it clear that it prefers the opposition and hints at the obvious economic consequences should the Pashinyan government continue to turn its back on Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).
To reiterate the point, Russia on Saturday recalled its ambassador to Armenia “for consultations.” The Russian Foreign Ministry website explained the move:
“Ambassador of the Russian Federation to the Republic of Armenia Sergey Kopyrkin has been called to Moscow for consultations in connection with steps by the Armenian leadership aimed at rapprochement with the EU that are causing damage to interaction within the EAEU.”
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova, along with denouncing Armenia for deleting the phrase “Great Patriotic War” from state documents, recently revealed that Moscow has told Armenia that agreements on Russian supplies of oil and gas at favorable prices could be cut if Armenia continues on the path toward the EU, which is the preferred one in the Pashinyan government.
According to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk, should Armenia leave the EEU, exports of Armenian goods will shrink by 70-80 per cent while energy and food prices skyrocket.
On the other side, for all the talk of the Trump administration and EU at odds, they continue to work in tandem here.
Trump endorses Pashinyan for re-election in Armenia. pic.twitter.com/cgRZJGsHXS
— Clash Report (@clashreport) May 28, 2026
Earlier in May, the EU held its European Political Community summit in Armenia:
lol yes hosting this in Armenia was definitely not to foster stability but to taunt Russia inside the country they had good relations with until recently. As a bonus, hosting it in Armenia is to further punish Georgia by having it next to us for not doing EU’s bidding and… https://t.co/AUn26a2wIA
— Sopo Japaridze (@sopjap) May 4, 2026
The mission is clear:
Macron in Yerevan: “there are still 4,000 Russian soldiers on Armenian territory & more than 1,000 border guards. Europe must commit to helping this country manage its borders more independently. Europe must commit to serving Armenian sovereignty and the choice for Europe” https://t.co/p2XLsxdhHx pic.twitter.com/m2FqUGpKYQ
— Hov Nazaretyan (@HovhanNaz) May 4, 2026
And spirits were high not dissimilar to when Victoria Nuland was handing out cookies in Kiev:
🇫🇷🇦🇲 Armenians sing the French anthem to Macron, who is walking through the streets of Yerevan
Macron feels like a powerful world leader again … he surely enjoys this pic.twitter.com/sJ2pwNnQvk
— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) May 4, 2026
Pashinyan’s victory is so important to both US and EU efforts of expanding influence into the Caucasus —and potentially into Central Asia— that it is likely any loss will not be accepted and will be followed by color revolution attempts and violence.
A Pashinyan victory could be even worse.
Economic Suicide
Armenia has been dependent on Russia economically and for security ever since the dissolution of the USSR. It has always made sense for the country to try to broaden its international ties beyond that dependence, and it recently began to do so—yet in a fashion that torpedoes its most important relationship.
The Pashinyan government has gone out of its way to emphatically burn bridges with Moscow in recent years. Some examples:
Not allowing the head of the Russian Society for Friendship and Cooperation with Armenia into the country.
A visit by Pashinyan’s wife to Kiev along with a shipment of humanitarian aid, the first sent by Armenia to Ukraine since the outbreak of the war.
In 2024, Armenia joined the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court. The ICC, which much of the world views as no more than a political tool of the West, has an outstanding arrest warrant for Putin for alleged war crimes in Ukraine. That now means that if Putin were to visit Armenia he should face arrest there, and the Pashinyan government might just be crazy enough to do it. Moscow called the ratification by Yerevan a “hostile act.” It’s certainly interesting timing on Armenia’s part considering the statute came into effect all the way back in 2002.
Armenia has hosted military exercises with the US for the past few years.
There have been media reports that Armenia will supply weaponry to Ukraine, although those haven’t been reliably confirmed.
Armenia “froze” its CSTO participation after Pashinyan met with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the head of MI6, Richard Moore, on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. Pashinyan’s office released only a brief notice of the gathering without mentioning anything that was discussed, so we can only guess.
Armenian opposition leader and dual Russian citizen Samvel Karapetyan has been jailed and his electric company nationalized.
Taking the Russian keys to the southern Armenia corridor and handing them to Washington (the route is now named after Trump). Russia had designs on a controlling stake in such a corridor, with a point from the peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan specifically calling for Russian involvement in such a route. Instead Washington and Yerevan have a deal for the US to hold a 74 percent stake in corridor infrastructure for fifty years, before dropping to a 51 percent stake.Not only does this upset Moscow’s plans for more trade connectivity, but TRIPP will cut Iran out of its role as a go-around between Azerbaijan and its exclave—and Türkiye. From Tehran’s perspective TRIPP looks a lot more like an effort to sever its land border with Armenia—and with it, a land route to Russia—further encircle the country and bring hostile actors to its border, and march US/Turkish/NATO influence across the Caucasus to the Caspian—and potentially beyond into Central Asia.
Do not fear, Pashinyan says.
Armenia doesn’t need to fear possible high prices, as Armenia will soon have a lot of money and visa-free travel to the EU, – stated Pashinyan.
We’ve heard this one somewhere before. pic.twitter.com/V62ltk19Kp
— Olga Bazova (@OlgaBazova) May 28, 2026
It’s an odd strategy considering Armenia is wholly dependent on Russia economically.
Russia is Armenia’s number one trading partner with about 40% of Armenian exports going to Russia.
More than 60% of Armenia’s natural gas supplies come from Russia. Armenia also currently pays Russia $165 per thousand cubic meters of gas, well below the market price in Europe.
Upwards of 7% per cent of Armenia’s GDP comes from remittances from Armenian migrants working in Russia.
Russia also controls Armenia’s railways and Russian companies own or manage Armenian electricity, gas, electronics, and defense-related sectors.
Yet Moscow has kept the kid gloves on, thus far only issuing warnings and cutting imports of some Armenian products like flowers, cognac, wine, and mineral water.
Some Duma officials have issued strong threats but the government line has been one of patience, largely in anticipation of the election and the hope that a more pro-Russian government will replace the current one.
If it doesn’t, it is expected Moscow will take stronger action. It’s a difficult spot for Russia as any economic measures can increase anti-Russian sentiment in the country, which Pashinyan and parts of the media have done their best to stir up.
TRIPP’d Up
The Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), a 43-kilometer (27 miles) corridor across southern Armenia that would connect Azerbaijan to its autonomous Nakhchivan exclave bordered by Armenia, Türkiye, and Iran, causes fears of a NATO spear into the heart of Asia and control over a Middle Corridor bottleneck.
Yet while it could help Türkiye expand its influence eastwards, there are major flaws to this line of thinking.
The first is simple geography.
None of it will happen without cooperation from Iran and Russia. As we wrote back in November:
Supporters of the Trans-Caspian route envision it linking up with a new pipeline through TRIPP or the existing Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline that runs from Azerbaijan to Türkiye via Georgia and then onto Europe.There are reasons why the pipeline hasn’t been built, chief among them that the 2018 Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea signed between Azerbaijan, Iran, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan didn’t solve disputes over submarine cables and pipelines.
Those are governed by the 2003 Tehran Convention, which stipulates environmental standards. Moscow and Tehran repeatedly invoke the Convention to effectively block the construction of pipelines between Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
If countries in the region try to proceed despite Moscow and Tehran’s objections, well, good luck with that.
Second, China already looks to be turning away from the Caucasus chaos. It’s all but abandoned its plans to build a deep water port in Georgia on the Black Sea and looks to instead be prioritizing land routes to Iran that could eventually link up to Europe via Türkiye—if those latter two have their heads on straight.
Third, and this is a big one. Climate is wrecking the Caspian where 50 kilometers has already been lost off the coast of Kazakhstan.
What TRIPP does do is inject chaos into the Caucasus region, much the same way Project Ukraine did across Europe, and the way Washington is trying to do in Central Asia as well. It helps ruin Armenian relations with Russia, helps pressure Iran, and it helps prevent connectivity and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization goal of stability of prosperity across Eurasia.
As of now, while Azerbaijan and Türkiye near completion of railway lines intended to link up to TRIPP, construction of anything in southern Armenia has yet to begin. ANy rail project for TRIPP will be another headache in the Moscow-yerevan relationship. That’s because back in 2008 Armenia signed an agreement granting full control over state-owned Armenian Railways to a subsidiary of Russian Railways, which controls investment decisions and development. Pashinyan says this doesn’t apply to TRIPP.
Moscow might feel otherwise.
Meanwhile, Russia might be trying to set up competing connections. For decades, Armenia’s only international rail connection has been to its north through Georgia to Russia and the Black Sea, but Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk recently stated that Russia is beginning negotiations to restore railway lines that would connect to Azerbaijan and Türkiye outside of the TRIPP corridor.
Speaking of Türkiye and Azerbaijan
They are much stronger militarily than Armenia. What kept them in check was Russia.
And they are much stronger economically than Armenia. What kept Armenia afloat was Russia.
What will happen now? It’s highly likely that the two will dominate Armenia economically, if not militarily. The EU and US, which Armenia is turning to, are unlikely to hold Türkiye (a NATO member) and Azerbaijan (a key Israel ally and gas supplier to the EU) in check.
And both Türkiye and Azerbaijan continue to walk a thin line with regards to Russia and Iran.
Türkiye has continued to import plenty of Russia oil and gas but it is now proposing a “military pipeline” to fuel NATO in eastern Europe. The word is the supply will come from Azerbaijan through TRIPP, but it’s more likely it will come from Russia. Azerbaijan oil production is actually in decline while Türkiye still imports nearly half of its supplies from Russia and is the third largest importer of Russian oil after China and India.
The situation in Azerbaijan with regards to Russia is not so different from what is happening in Armenia as ties have been systematically torpedoed by the Azeri side over the past year and a half. Azerbaijan just signed agreements with Ukraine to co-produce weaponry with Ukraine.
Another SMO?
Popular Russian TV host Vladimir Solovyov recently made waves when he suggested it’s time for a special military operation in Armenia. His comments:
“We must very clearly formulate our goals and objectives. We must explain: the games are over. To hell with international law and the international order. If, for our national security, it was necessary to start a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine, why, based on the same considerations, can we not start a special military operation in other points of our zone of influence?”
While Armenia is not Ukraine (it has a comparatively miniscule population and hardly any defense sector), if it allows itself to be controlled and increasingly armed by NATO states or we see drones launching from Armenia, it is not out of the question.
The situation could become much more tense following a Pashinyan victory, especially if Armenia tries to evict Russia from its military base in Gyrumi, Armenia, which hosts roughly 3,000 troops. For now Moscow doesn’t think that’ll happen. Here’s secretary of the Russian Security Council Sergei Shoigu:
“As for the Russian base, it is still active and functioning, and we do not yet see any reasons or threats that would prevent it from remaining where it is.” The signing of the strategic partnership agreement between Armenia and the United States “looks more like an election campaign or assistance in an election campaign.”
I guess we’ll see.
