Private payrolls unexpectedly fell by 32,000

The U.S. labor market slowdown intensified in November as private companies cut 32,000 workers, with small businesses hit the hardest, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday.

With worries intensifying over the domestic jobs picture, ADP indicated the issues were worse than anticipated. The payrolls decline marked a sharp step down from October, which saw an upwardly revised gain of 47,000 positions, and was well below the Dow Jones consensus estimate from economists for an increase of 40,000.

Larger businesses, entailing companies with 50 or more employees, actually reported a net gain of 90,000 workers.

However, establishments with fewer than 50 workers saw a decline of 120,000, including a drop of 74,000 among firms with 20 to 49 employees. The total loss was the biggest drop since March 2023.

Education and health services led gainers with 33,000 hires, while leisure and hospitality added 13,000. But a broad-based decline across industries drove the total lower.

The biggest loss came in professional and business services, which saw a decline of 26,000. Others shedding jobs included information services (-20,000), manufacturing (-18,000), and financial activities and construction, both of which saw losses of 9,000.

The rate of pay also slowed, with workers staying in their jobs seeing a 4.4% year-over-year increase, down 0.1 percentage point from October.

“Hiring has been choppy of late as employers weather cautious consumers and an uncertain macroeconomic environment,” said ADP’s chief economist, Nela Richardson. “And while November’s slowdown was broad-based, it was led by a pullback among small businesses.”

The ADP report is the last jobs picture the Federal Reserve gets before it meets Dec. 9-10. Futures traders are assigning a nearly 90% probability that the central bank will approve another quarter percentage point cut in its key interest rate, despite misgivings from some officials over whether further easing is needed. The probability was about the same following the ADP release.

In recent weeks, Fed policymakers have expressed a divergence of opinions. One side sees cuts as necessary to head off further labor market troubles, while the other worries that additional reductions could aggravate inflation, which has held considerably above the Fed’s 2% target.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its take on the nonfarm payrolls picture on Dec. 16, a date delayed because of the government shutdown.