Oil & Religion | Armstrong Economics

QUESTION: Marty, looking at Socrates, it does not show that this release of 400 million barrels of oil will do much. Am I reading this correctly?

ANSWER: The International Energy Agency released 400 million barrels of oil into the global market, the largest release of emergency oil stocks in history. This is just for show. However, it actually makes things far more vulnerable. This is all predicated on a quick victory with the conquest of Iran. If that assumption is wrong, this will not help.

1. MATHEMATICALLY INSUFFICIENT (won’t even cover 2-3 months of lost supply)2. STRATEGICALLY STUPID (leaves U.S. vulnerable to future crises)3. POLITICALLY DESPERATE (election-year panic move)4. ECONOMICALLY FUTILE (treats symptom, not disease)

Let’s get real. Global oil consumption is about 100 million barrels/day (mb/d). U.S. consumption is about 20 million barrels/day. The disruption of the Strait of Hormuz supply affects about 21 million barrels/day (21% of global supply).  Releasing 400 million barrels at the global consumption rate would last 19 days (400M ÷ 21M/day). There is no way this will calm markets in the long term.

As I have been warning since the turn in the ECM in 2024, the US would enter STAGFLATION but Europe would be more of an economic Depression. The Marxist agenda of the EU oppresses the economy and it has posted the lowest economic growth of the major powers in the world. They hatred of the rich and insistance on exploiting them is why the economic growth is pathetic. As I have said, the capitalization of just the NYSE is nore than all the exchanges of Europe, including London, combined.

The Trump administration has wisely invoked the Defense Production Act and had overriden California which shut down offshore oil operations in California.  Trump has wisely addressed oil supply disruption risks and reduce reliance on foreign crude by increasing domestic production. Releasing 400 million barrels is just not a real solution.

The Trump Administration has directed Sable Offshore Corp., an oil and gas company headquartered in Houston, to restore operations at the Santa Ynez Unit and the Santa Ynez Pipeline System off the coast of Santa Barbara. Failing to do so allows Iran to engage in a supply war like the 1970s. Trump is also lifting sanctions on Russia. The best thing to come out of this Iran War is to put a check against Zelensky.

I am still concerned about June/July. While President Trump said “Iran wants to make a deal, and I don’t want to make it because the terms aren’t good enough yet,” on NBC on Saturday, saying that a “very solid” agreement would have to include a commitment by Tehran to abandon nuclear ambitions. However, the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the Islamic Republic is open to “any regional initiative that leads to a fair end to the war,” according to an interview published by the UK-based Al-Araby Al-Jadeed news website on Sunday.

Let me cut through the diplomatic bullshit and tell you what’s really happening: Netanyahu is absolutely pushing for regime change in Iran, and Trump is going along with it. But the relationship is more complex than simple puppet-master dynamics.

NETANYAHU’S POSITION has been clear and consistent. He wants the complete destruction of Iranian regime (not just nuclear program, not just military degradation—REGIME CHANGE). He has wanted this for 40+ years (documented, consistent). He has stated this explicitly multiple times in recent months (post-Feb 28 strikes). The first strike was to implement his insane policy of DECAPITATION assuming that would cause the government to collapse assassinating Khamenei and the IRGC leadership.Let’s be clear. That is not “deterrence,” that’s REGIME CHANGE operation and Trump agreed.

TRUMP’S POSITION looking at his public statements, suggests  “maximum pressure,” “they must change behavior.” He has also made occasional regime change hints. His actions are consistent with regime change decapitation strikes, “every weapon” threats, no clear offramp for Iran. This presents the problem of no exit strategy all based on the assumption Netanyahu whispers in his ear that DECAPITATION will succeed. Yet, Trump is also transactional might accept “deal” if Iran capitulates completely, but that does not see likely based on our computer models. Netanyahu absolutely in his ear, but Trump has own motivations (political, ego, strategic)

The real question is: Why is Trump doing this BECAUSE Netanyahu demands it, or are their interests ALIGNED? It appears that Trump and Netanyahu both want regime change, yet for independent motivations. Netanyahu has been pushing Trump further/faster than Trump would go alone.

Netanyahu does have domestic US support he is using against Trump. The Evangelical base (30-40% of Trump’s coalition) are fanatically pro-Israel, see Iran as biblical enemy as the Amalek of 1 Samuel 15:2-3! Then there are the domestic Jewish donors who are also major Republican funding such as Sheldon Adelson’s widow Miriam, others—billions at stake. There is also the AIPAC influence, which is a powerful lobbying group that can make/break candidates. Add to this, the media support, which spins the Neocon agenda and is Pro-Israel amplifying Trump when he’s tough on Iran.

The Byzantine Empire did try to defeat the early Arab-Islamic Caliphates and lost a significant portion of its territory. However, the Empire managed to survive, fight back, and eventually reclaim some of its lost lands. Yet the conflict was not a single, short war but a protracted series of campaigns known as the Arab-Byzantine wars, spanning over four centuries from the 7th to the 11th century. The outcome was a mixture of catastrophic defeat and eventual resurgence. They conquered Constantinople and the last emperor died fighting on the walls trying to save the last remanent of the Roman Empire.

This war is pushing the system over the edge and at stake will indeed be the 2026 Midterm Elections. The vast majority of congressional Republicans are publicly supportive of President Donald Trump’s decision to launch a war on Iran. This does not help matters. My concern is that nobody seems to comprehend that this is NOT the same as Iraq. Saddam was just a head of state. This is a religious war as was the case in Afghanistan. There is no historical precedent for winning such a war when the core is to undermine or destroy a religion.