[This Iran war post will be short because I had tech issues that required attention, plus in this overly dynamic situation, a lot could change quickly. This post should be complete by 7:30 AM EDT]
As readers likely know, Israel is doing its best to sabotage the US-Iran “deal” and has scored an initial success, with the talks scheduled to start in Switzerland postponed and no new date set. Israel intensified attacks in Lebanon and then mounted more fierce strikes immediately after yet another ceasefire was announced. Axios is again peddling more fake news, claiming that Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is going to Switzerland for negotiations when no such thing is happening.
However, it seems the “deal” was destined not to get off the ground quickly as the US had no doubt hoped, because oil cliff. Iran is holding the US fast to Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) language which as Iran parses it, sets other preconditions for talks beyond getting Israel out of the business of incorporating Lebanon into Greater Israel.
Finally, arguably the key issue. the status of the Strait of Hormuz given the negotiation dustup, remains unclear. Even if Trump musters up the will to come down on Israel, which the US can do, it seems likely to hold up the negotiation timetable by at least a couple of weeks as the cage match plays out. That brings the oil cliff even closer. As Richard Pape stressed, Iran’s negotiation power increases as the squeeze becomes imminent or even kicks in. The cost of having the Strait of Hormuz closed or throttled will become manifest, and lead to howls to Do Something.
Iran could elect to play a bit nicely by letting the ships bottled up the Gulf out, which will provide some additional supply and push out the arrival date of the energy cliff by an estimated week to ten days. But there is a huge furor in Iran over the official acceptance of the deal and then the US’ continuing failure to check Israel in Lebanon. The Supreme Leader also added to the controversy by effectively saying on Twitter that he was not keen about the pact but agreed because the Supreme National Security Council backed it.
Iran is also imposing an insurance regime, free for the first 60 days, which can be assumed to justify higher charges than could be defended as environment fees. Mind you, I cannot imagine anyone would assign monetary value to these policies, save as a guarantee that Iran will not fire on them. Insurance is a right to sue the insurer to get paid in the event of a claim. Think anyone is going to want to pursue litigation in Iran?
Now to uppack some of these issues, first to the continued negotiation impasse:
BREAKING: Iran rejects Axios new claim that FM Araghchi is traveling to Switzerland Saturday for negotiations, saying no meeting or negotiations will take place and no delegation will attend now or in the future unless Article 13 of the MOU is fully implemented first, per Tasnim.…
— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) June 20, 2026
There is no update on negotiations on Tasnim; PressTV instead has Pakistan’s interior minister travels to Tehran to discuss Iran-US negotiations, meaning the intermediaries are trying to get the talks back on track.
On the obstacles to getting the discussions going: Iran is insisting that the US perform on its MOU commitments before it gets out of bed. From The Cradle:
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, confirmed today that the meeting scheduled to take place in Switzerland has been postponed to a later date.
Baghaei said that, under Article 13 of the memorandum of understanding, negotiations on a final agreement can only begin once Articles 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11 are implemented and continue to be upheld.
Article 1 calls for the immediate and permanent end to military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon.
Articles 4 and 5 outline the reciprocal lifting of US and Iranian restrictions and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Article 10 commits the United States to immediately issuing waivers for Iranian oil exports and related services, while Article 11 requires Washington to make Iran’s frozen and restricted funds and assets fully available for use.
He added that consultations through mediators are ongoing and that Iran will announce a new date for the talks once the necessary conditions for negotiations have been met.
Iran insisting on Articles 4 and 5 suggests Iran will do its part to “open” the Strait of Hormuz. However, the delay in starting the negotiations and Iran requiring insurance (more on that below) may deter more ship operators. A lower flow than otherwise might be expected again works to Iran’s benefit.
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