Food inflation leads diners to cheaper menu items

Consumers are still dining out, but instead of higher-priced entrees, many are ordering more appetizers.

As food inflation and affordability dominates the conversation about the U.S. consumer, new restaurant purchasing data shows even among Americans who are going to restaurants, many are in the mindset of cutting back.

“Appetizer orders are up 20% year over year, even as entrees and desserts are largely flat or declining,” said Jim Pazzanese, executive vice president of global strategic procurement of Buyers Edge Platform, which tracks supply chain data within the food service industry. “The shift is visible at the item level,” he said, with some popular appetizer sales to restaurant operators experiencing growth rates north of 30%.

Top-growing appetizers

Mozzarella sticks, up 36%Pickle chips, up 35%Cheese curds, up 33%Jalapeno poppers, up 20%Cheese bites, up 17%

Source: Buyers Edge, year-to-date data

Pazzanese is calling the current restaurant environment the “appetizer economy.”

Meanwhile, he says dessert orders are down 2 percent year over year.

One reason for the rising popularity of appetizers, Pazzanese says, is their link to promotions, which are key to getting Americans to spend in the current economic environment.

“Consumers realize appetizers are more frequently tied to promotions and drink specials,” he said. “This makes eating out more affordable.”

He added that buying of frozen or shelf-stable appetizers, which are the fastest-growing appetizer SKUs, makes sense from an economic perspective for restaurant operators, too. “This is helping owners and managers reduce waste and manage unpredictable demands,” Pazzanese said.

“The K-shaped economy we are seeing is being reflected in food spending,” said Brian Choi, CEO of the Food Institute.

In the grocery store, he said that is being seen in the continued migration to private label brands as food inflation influences consumer purchasing.

“The top 10 percent are increasing their spending in novel products and are willing to pay, but the vast majority of consumers are moving down to private label versus national brands,” said Choi. “Consumers can save anywhere from 10-20 percent by switching to a private label,” Choi added.

In a recent Food Institute survey, consumer perception of private labels has gone up substantially over the last five years, and it is now on par with national brands.

“Albertsons, Costco, and Kroger are just some examples of companies increasing their shelf space for their own,” Choi said.

“Save Mart launched a private-label for beef, poultry, and pork, and Amazon launched Amazon Grocery with many products under $5,” Choi said. “Albertsons believes private label could represent 30 percent of sales.”

Amazon debuted its private-label grocer in October.

While inflation may be down from 2022 highs, food inflation has been stubborn, according to Food Institute data.

“Food price inflation has increased since the midpoint of 2025, with food-at-home prices up in the range of 1.9 percent to 2.7 percent year-over-year,” Choi said.

The latest consumer price index for September — the October report was not produced due to the government shutdown and the November report delayed — showed food prices up 3.1% year over year. Prices for meat, poultry, fish and eggs surged 5.2% in the past year.

“We expect further growth for private label, and it should outpace national brands in 2026,” Choi said.

The September CPI showed “food away from home” inflation even higher than food inflation overall, at 3.7%, with full-service meals at 4.2%. That is leading to more private-label spending by restaurants, college and university dining halls, and convenience stores.

“The $1.5 trillion food away from home industry is seeing the move to more private label brands to save money,” said Phil Kafarakis, CEO of the IFMA, the Food Away from Home Association.

“Tariffs and supply chain issues have led to price increases, especially in perishable items,” Kafarakis said.

Pricing relief is not expected to arrive soon.

“Consumers do not understand the food supply chain,” Kafarakis said. “It doesn’t correct itself in weeks.”

IMFA expects that consumers will start to see some price relief from tariffs in the spring.

“Consumers do not know how long it takes to produce beef, and if you have a drought or other problems that impact the supply chain, it takes time to build the supply chain back up,” Kafarakis said.