Consumer confidence is lower than expected as Wall Street braces for shutdown data blackout

Consumer confidence edged lower in September ahead of an expected data blackout caused by the looming federal government shutdown, the Conference Board reported Tuesday.

The board’s headline confidence index registered a 94.2 reading, off 3.6 points from the August reading and below the Dow Jones estimate for 96.0. The reading was the lowest since April and comes with nonessential government operations slated to close at midnight.

In addition to the weakness on the main reading, the “present situation” index hit its lowest in a year.

“Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was much less positive than in recent months, while their appraisal of current job availability fell for the ninth straight month to reach a new multiyear low,” said Stephanie Guichard, the organization’s senior economist for global indicators.

Though the labor market has shown considerable weakness this year, employment availability in August was slightly better than the prior month.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics, in what could be its last data release until the spending impasse on Capitol Hill is resolved, said job openings totaled 7.23 million, up 19,000 from July though down 422,000, or 5.5%, from the same period a year ago.

The bureau’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover report, which Federal Reserve officials watch closely to gauge labor market slack, showed a slower pace in both hiring and total separations. Quits fell by 75,000 for a category looked at as a gauge of worker confidence for finding new jobs after leaving their present one.

Labor market stability is an important consideration for the Fed as officials contemplate the next move for interest rates. Markets widely expect the central bank to lower its benchmark borrowing rate by half a percentage point by the end of the year, with cuts at the October and December meetings.

“My baseline outlook doesn’t see the labor market softening much further – but there are risks,” Boston Fed President Susan Collins said Tuesday. “In particular, I see some increased risk that labor demand may fall significantly short of supply, leading to a more meaningful and unwelcome increase in the unemployment rate.”

Should the spending impasse be resolved by Friday, the BLS is expected to show payroll growth of 51,000 in September, following just 22,000 in August.

The Conference Board’s report showed a growing divide in labor market perceptions.

The share of respondents indicating that jobs were “plentiful” slipped to 26.9%, down more than 3 percentage points from August, while the “hard to get” gauge held flat at 19.1%.

Also, the survey showed more pessimism about finances, as views on their current financial situation saw its biggest one-month drop since the question was asked in July 2022.