Can Bitcoin Price Action Avoid Another ‘Absolutely Terrible’ Monday at $63,000?

Bitcoin (BTC) consolidated near two-week highs into Sunday’s weekly close as traders geared up for fresh market turbulence.

Key points:

Bitcoin approaches its highest levels in two weeks, but Mondays have been “terrible” for BTC price action, a trader warns.BTC/USD is in the process of deciding the fate of its 200-week moving average.Crypto market analysis sees “greener shoots” on the back of the latest US macro data.

Trader: Past seven Mondays “absolutely terrible” for BTC price

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD focusing on $62,700, the site of a key long-term trend line, the 200-week simple moving average (SMA).

BTC/USD four-hour chart with 200-week SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bulls managed a trip to $63,450 on Saturday amid thinner exchange order books and a three-day US holiday weekend.

“Seeing stronger passive supply here pressing price from above,” commentator Exitpump wrote in their latest analysis on X.

BTC order-book data. Source: Exitpump/X

Trader Daan Crypto Trades flagged short position liquidations as the price gained, with data from CoinGlass putting the 24-hour crypto total at $167 million.

“Classic short squeeze, price grinds higher into a level everyone’s shorting until forced covering does the rest,” he commented on X. 

“Now the question is whether $62.6K (Weekly 200MA) holds as support or if this was just liquidity getting cleared before rolling over again.”

BTC/USD vs. crypto liquidation history (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Fellow trader Killa had a word of warning, reiterating that the past seven Mondays had seen major price weakness.

“7/7 Mondays have been absolutely terrible for $BTC,” they told X followers. 

“Will we repeat the exact same pattern next week?”

Bitcoin ETFs contribute to crypto’s “greener shoots”

In a new analysis published on Friday, trading company QCP Capital eyed potential tailwinds forming for crypto and risk assets.

Related: Bollinger Bands creator eyes Bitcoin bear-market end, ‘W’-shaped reversal

These included renewed net inflows to the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

As Cointelegraph reported, last week’s US nonfarm payrolls report came in below anticipated levels, sparking a softening in hawkish expectations of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

“The clearest dovish tell was a 2% pop in gold, though that reads more as a real-rate and safe-haven hedge than growth conviction,” it acknowledged. 

“Crypto, though, is showing greener shoots: BTC spot ETFs snapped a six-session outflow streak to pull in $224mn on Thursday, their first positive print in over a week and an early sign that dip buyers are stepping back in after roughly $2.4bn of redemptions.”

Fed target rate probabilities for July 29 FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group

The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool saw a near-80% chance of the Fed holding rates at current levels at its July 29 meeting.

QCP added that before then, conducive Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data would be needed for “broader confirmation of a front-end dovish repricing.”