Only five ships moved through the Strait of Hormuz on April 9 during the ceasefire agreement between Iran and the U.S. and Israel, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. That number of ships, three tankers and two other vessels, is significantly below the “minimum of fifteen” ships Iran had promised would pass through the Strait during the expected two-week ceasefire, and is vastly lower than the pre-war count of 130 to 160 ships. The number also underscores an uncomfortable truth about the ceasefire in the war in Iran: while the U.S. has stopped its attacks, Iran has been able to functionally keep the Strait closed.
There have been plenty of days during the war which saw significantly more traffic than these seven ships that have passed during the ceasefire—including multiple days last week alone that saw 13 ships crossing the waterway. On Wednesday, the day after the ceasefire was announced, only four passed, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
It seems like the Pandora’s box is open: Iran has control over the Strait and is looking to maintain that control—using it as their top priority in their negotiations with the U.S. and Israel, which are set to start Friday. Tehran has made quite a penny charging tolls on the Strait, and twisting the knife by demanding payment in cryptocurrency or Chinese yuan, according to the FT. And Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Saeed Khatibzadeh, told ITV earlier Thursday that any ship needs army approval to pass so crews can be told where to avoid the mines—formalizing what was already a de facto closure.
All of which sits quite awkwardly against the day’s diplomatic vein. Trump told NBC Thursday he’s “very optimistic” about a peace deal with Iran and said Netanyahu promised to “low-key it” in Lebanon, after a brutal wave of strikes left over 200 people dead in Beirut in a single day and prompted Iran to claim the ceasefire deal had been broken—although White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Lebanon was not part of the agreement. “I just think we have to be sort of a little more low-key,” Trump told NBC.
Israel agreed to direct talks with Lebanon starting next week at the State Department, ostensibly under U.S. pressure. After the news broke, the S&P 500 reversed its morning loss and is on track for a seventh straight advance—its longest winning streak since October. WTI pulled back to around $97 after spiking above $102 earlier in the session, and Brent settled near $96, despite no indication the Strait is any more open than it was yesterday.
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