Inside the Races That Could Tip the Senate

Several Senate races are starting to take shape, giving us a better idea of what the November matchups will be. With a slew of primaries behind us, political strategists have been busy shifting forecasts as challengers and incumbents prepare for a long summer of attack ads, negative stories, and campaigning. The Democratic Party has high hopes of regaining control of the Senate, a possibility with little room for error. Across the aisle, the GOP looks to hold its slim majority under the shadow of President Donald Trump’s sinking approval numbers. Which side prevails may depend on these four races.

Senate Predictions Shift

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics lists four Senate races as toss-ups: Alaska, Ohio, Maine, and Michigan. Alaska and Ohio were deemed “lean Republican” until about a week ago, when North Carolina went from a toss-up to “lean Democratic.” Democrats need to win four of these five races and hold all their current seats to capture control of the Senate. The GOP is playing defense in three of these toss-ups, with the most vulnerable incumbent in the Northeast.

Despite mounting baggage, political newcomer Graham Platner cruised to victory with more than 70% support in Maine’s Democratic primary earlier this month. It was an easy victory, though, because Gov. Janet Mills stopped campaigning on April 30. Her withdrawal was no doubt a gut-punch to Democrats who considered Mills the party’s long-sought answer to finally unseat Sen. Susan Collins, the longest-serving Republican woman in Senate history.

Since Mills’ early exit, media outlets have published multiple reports with controversies related to Platner, including sexually explicit texts to several women after he married his wife, more unseemly Reddit posts, and accusations of aggressive behavior from three ex-girlfriends. Yet none of this stopped Mainers from supporting him.

Right now, Collins’ favorability is fairly weak, and recent polls show Platner ahead by one or two points. But Platner’s history could end up being too much for voters who have backed Collins in the past while voting for Democrats in other races. Also, it wouldn’t be surprising if more negative stories about Platner emerged before mid-July, the deadline for him to drop out in time to be replaced by another Democrat – an unlikely scenario, but that probably won’t stop party leaders from crossing their fingers and hoping for a summer switcharoo.

Democratic Dogfight

The GOP’s best opportunity to flip a seat and throw a serious wrench into Democrats’ majority math might be in Michigan, where Democrat Gary Peters is retiring. A messy competition with a lot of mud-slinging is unfolding in the Democratic primary between former public health official Abdul El-Sayed, four-term Rep. Haley Stevens, and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow. The contest could wind up ranking among the most expensive and competitive of this election season.

El-Sayed leads in the polls, with Stevens not far behind him, yet McMorrow is still showing strong support in third, for the most part. Her biggest challenge might be herself, however. A prominent Michigan pollster recently accused her campaign of pressuring a state capitol news outlet into killing a survey that found McMorrow with just 6% support, far behind El-Sayed’s 42% and Stevens’ 33%.

Despite espousing positions such as “Medicare for all,” free college education, and the abolition of ICE, El-Sayed looks like the favorite, though his far-left policies might make him more vulnerable in a general election against Mike Rogers, the presumptive GOP nominee. El-Sayed has also drawn scrutiny for opposing America’s partnership with Israel and for campaigning with Hasan Piker, a media personality who once said the US “deserved 9/11.” Republicans would no doubt like to have El-Sayed as an opponent in November, while establishment Democrats hope Stevens, backed by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, wins the primary on August 4.

Midwestern Coin Flip

Over in Ohio, Senator Jon Husted, a Republican appointed to fill Vice President JD Vance’s old seat, is heading to a general election against former Sen. Sherrod Brown. Brown held a seat in the Senate for 18 years and left office in 2025 after losing to Republican Sen. Bernie Moreno in 2024, the same year President Donald Trump won the state by 12 points. Republicans, however, are facing a tougher political environment this year.

Things are heating up on the ground, too. An effort to tie Husted to convicted sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein is gaining steam. Ohioans recently called out Husted for reportedly taking more than $100,000 from Epstein co-conspirator Les Wexner. Voters protested Husted in Columbus, Toledo, Youngstown, Westlake, and Steubenville. Some demonstrators criticized him for voting against a defense bill last year that included an amendment to release the Epstein files. It’s too soon to tell whether any of this will damage his standing with the electorate, but it probably won’t help him.

So far, nearly $16 million has been spent on this race, with plenty more to come. A Senate Republican-aligned super PAC plans to spend $79 million to support Husted, while a Senate Democrat-aligned super PAC has pledged $40 million to support his opponent. Polling numbers have fluctuated in this race. The latest one shows Brown up by 4%, but a recent Fox News poll found Brown leading Husted by 8%. However, the three surveys before that, all by different pollsters, showed Husted in the lead by as much as 6 points. Still, the polling average has them in a dead heat. This one will likely be decided on the margins.

The Last Frontier

Another pick-up opportunity for Democrats is in deep-red Alaska, where former Rep. Mary Peltola is trying to unseat two-term Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan. Peltola was first elected to Congress in a 2022 special election but lost her reelection bid in 2024. At the time, she was the first Democrat to win statewide since 2008. Democrats likely hope her familiar face will resonate with voters despite the party’s past struggles in Alaska. Using a worn-out playbook, Democrats are amplifying Sullivan’s support for President Donald Trump and some of his less popular decisions, hoping to capitalize on voter frustration over rising prices and the controversial war in Iran. Attack ads aimed at Sullivan have often focused on cuts to Medicaid and his opposition to extending health insurance subsidies last year.

Alaska doesn’t get polled much, but in recent surveys, Peltola leads Sullivan by an average of 5 points. Notably, Alaska uses a top-four election system: All candidates run together in the primary, and the top four finishers advance to a general election. If none of the candidates finish with more than 50%, a ranked-choice vote decides the winner. The open primary isn’t until August 18, so there’s still plenty of room for this one to take a turn.

For Democrats, all roads to winning a majority cross through these four states. But for them to net four Senate seats in today’s political environment is a tall task, even with Trump’s low approval ratings. Still, the president’s growing unpopularity is emboldening them, perhaps too much. They might be able to win a few seats by relying primarily on anti-Trump rhetoric rather than policies, but to hold all their seats and flip four might be a pipe dream.