‘I am overwhelmed by the need to stay on top of where the deals are’: Back-to-school shopping turns into China tariff-dodging exercise

Big retail chains generate online lists of school supplies for customers who type in their zip codes, then choose a school and a grade level. One click and they are ready to check out. Some schools also offer busy parents a one-stop shop by partnering with vendors that sell premade kits with binders, index cards, pens and other needed items.

Yet for all the time-saving options, many families begin their back-to-school shopping months before Labor Day, searching around for the best deals and making purchases tied to summer sales. This year, the possibility of price increases from new U.S. tariffs on imports motivated more shoppers to get a jump start on replacing and refilling school backpacks, according to retail analysts.

Retail and technology consulting company Coresight Research estimates that back-to-school spending from June through August will reach $33.3 billion in the U.S., a 3.3% increase from the same three-month period a year ago. The company predicted families would complete about 60% of their shopping before August to avoid extra costs from tariffs.

“Consumers are of the mindset where they’re being very strategic and conscientious around price fluctuations, so for back to school, it prompts them to shop even earlier,” said Vivek Pandya, lead analyst at Adobe Digital Insights, the research division of software company Adobe Inc.

Getting a head start

Miami resident Jacqueline Agudelo, 39, was one of the early birds who started shopping for school supplies in June because she wanted to get ahead of possible price increases from new U.S. tariffs on imported products.

The teacher’s supply list for her 5-year-old son, who started kindergarten earlier this month, mandated specific classroom items in big quantities. Agudelo said her shopping list included 15 boxes of Crayola crayons, Lysol wipes and five boxes of Ticonderoga brand pencils, all sharpened.

Agudelo said she spent $160 after finding plenty of bargains online and in stores, including the crayons at half off, but found the experience stressful.

“I am overwhelmed by the need to stay on top of where the deals are as shopping has become more expensive over the years,” she said.

A lot of the backpacks, lined paper, glue sticks — and Ticonderoga pencils — sold in the U.S. are made in China, whose products were subjected to a 145% tariff in the spring. Under the latest agreement between the countries, general merchandise from China is taxed at a 30% rate when it enters the U.S.

Many companies accelerated shipments from China early in the year, stockpiling inventory at pre-tariff prices. Some predicted consumers would encounter higher prices just in time for back-to-school shopping. Although government data showed consumer prices rose 2.7% last month from a year earlier, strategic discounting by major retailers may have muted any sticker shock for customers seeking school supplies.

Backpacks and lunchboxes, for example, had discounts as deep as 12.1% during Amazon’s Prime Day sales and competing online sales at Target and Walmart in early July, Adobe Insights said. Throughout the summer, some of the biggest chains have advertised selective price freezes to hold onto customers.

Walmart is promoting a back-to-school deal that includes 14 supplies plus a backpack for $16, the lowest price in six years, company spokesperson Leigh Stidham said. Target said in June that it would maintain its 2024 prices on 20 key back-to-school items that together cost less than $20.

An analysis consumer data provider Numerator prepared for The Associated Press showed the retail cost of 48 products a family with two school age children might need — two lunchboxes, two scientific calculators, a pair of boy’s shoes — averaged $272 in July, or $3 less than the same month last year.

Digital natives in the classroom

Numerator, which tracks U.S. retail prices through sales receipts, online account activity and other information from 200,000 shoppers, reported last year that households were buying fewer notebooks, book covers, writing instruments and other familiar staples as students did more of their work on computers.

The transition does not mean students no longer have to stock up on plastic folders, highlighters and erasers, or that parents are spending less to equip their children for class. Accounting and consulting firm Deloitte estimates that traditional school supplies will account for more than $7 billion of the $31 billion it expects U.S. parents to put toward back-to-school shopping.

Shopping habits also are evolving. TeacherLists, an online platform where individual schools and teachers can upload their recommended supply lists and parents can search for them, was launched in 2012 to reduce the need for paper lists. It now has more than 2 million lists from 70,000 schools.

Users have the option of clicking on an icon that populates an online shopping cart at participating retail chains. Some retailers also license the data for use on their websites and in their stores, said Dyanne Griffin, the architect and vice president of TeacherLists.

The typical number of items teacher request has remained fairly steady at around 17 since the end of the coronavirus pandemic, Griffin said. “The new items that had come on the list, you know, in the last four or five years are more the tech side. Everybody needs headphones or earbuds, that type of thing, maybe a mouse,” she said.

She’s also noticed a lot of schools requiring clear backpacks and pencil pouches so the gear can’t be used to stow guns.

Enter artificial intelligence

For consumers who like to research their options before they buy, technology and retail companies have introduced generative AI tools to help them find and compare products. Rufus, the AI-powered shopping assistant that Amazon launched last year, is now joined by Sparky, an app-only feature that Walmart shoppers can use to get age-specific product recommendations and other information in response to their questions.

Just over a quarter of U.S. adults say they use AI for shopping, which is considerably lower than the number who say they use AI for tasks such as searching for information or brainstorming, according to an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll in July.

Some traditions remain

Before the pandemic turned a lot more people into online shoppers, schools and local Parent Teacher Associations embraced the idea of making back-to-school shopping easier by ordering ready-made bundles of teacher-recommended supplies. An extra fee on the price helped raise money for the school.

Market data from Edukit, a supplier of school supply kits owned by TeachersList parent company School Family Media, shows that about 40% of parents end up buying the boxes, meaning the other 60% need to shop on their own, Griffin said. She noted that parents typically must commit no later than June to secure a bundle, which focus on essentials like notebooks and crayons.

Agudelo said her son’s school offered a box for $190 that focused on basics like crayons and notebooks but didn’t include a backpack. She decided to pass and shop around for the best prices. She also liked bringing her son along for the shopping trips.

“There’s that sense of getting him mentally prepared for the school year,” Agudelo said. “The box takes away from that.”