39 Going on 40 (Trillion)

A little over two weeks ago, on April 7th, the U.S. national debt crossed $39 trillion. Since then, another $150 billion has already been added to the ledger. While major news outlets missed the milestone, every trillion is worthy of mention.

House Budget Chairman Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) put the figure in perspective:

America is now $39,000,000,000,000 in debt—yes, $39 trillion. It took roughly 200 years to accumulate the first $1 trillion. Now we add that in a matter of months… Compounding the problem, we now spend more than $1 trillion a year just on interest to service our debt—more than the entire defense budget.

Almost three years ago, I wrote about the U.S. debt crossing the $32 trillion and $33 trillion marks. If there’s one economic projection to stand by, it’s this: within the next several months, the $40 trillion debt level will be breached.

Looking back at the last 200 years, or even the last three, it becomes clear that debt growth is not linear; the curve is moving up exponentially. While the future is always uncertain, the trajectory is unmistakable. One reason stands above the rest: the interest on the debt itself.

For context, net interest outlays were equivalent to 22.1% of total revenues through Q1 of FY 2026. Even if the national debt were frozen at $39 trillion today, the interest payments alone would be staggering. With the 10-year Treasury yield hovering between 4% and 4.5% at the time of writing, and annual interest surpassing $1 trillion, solvency should be a real concern.

Naturally, one might argue that with a Federal Reserve, solvency is not a concern. However, that’s the crux of the matter. America technically won’t become insolvent thanks to the Fed’s ability to create money (literally) out of thin air, and so, the final outcome is certain. Expanding debt and the accompanying expansion of the money supply are features of the system. History shows that monetary inflation, currency debasement, and the eventual crack-up boom are the recurring final outcomes.

Couple the interest problem with global conflict and the endless crisis response cycle of political outlays, and it’s fair to say that Congress has as much appetite for cutting spending as they do for ending the Federal Reserve

39 going on $40 trillion is an achievement only in the sense that many once thought we’d never see numbers this large. Over forty years ago, during the Reagan administration, the debt tripled from $1 trillion to $3 trillion, and life went on. Applying that same logic today and accounting for exponential growth, we are talking about $40 trillion becoming $120 trillion in our lifetime.

The idea of $50 trillion, $60 trillion, or even $80 trillion seems absurd, but history gives us no reason to assume a ceiling exists.

I still wouldn’t bet against America; the U.S. dollar persists largely because liberty and freedom still mean something in the USA, and the greenback remains the cleanest shirt in the dirty pile. But that doesn’t change the fact that life could be better for almost everyone. That is everyone except those who continue to steer society down a path Austrians have warned about for generations.

The debt clock keeps ticking. The numbers keep rising. And while life will go on, we must ask: what kind of life will it be? And for whom?