Prediction markets see Hassett, Warsh as Fed chair front-runners

President Donald Trump’s fresh comments on potential candidates to replace Jerome Powell as the next chair of the Federal Reserve sparked a wave of speculation on prediction markets.

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had all been floated as contenders to lead the central bank.

In a wide-ranging interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” Trump spoke highly of Hassett and Warsh, while revealing that Bessent, enjoying his current post as Treasury Secretary, has taken himself out of contention.

“He’s very good,” Trump said, referring to Warsh. “Sometimes they’re all very good, until you put them in there, and then they don’t do so good. But … I think he’s a very good guy. I’d say Kevin and Kevin, both Kevins are very good.”

Wagers on prediction market Kalshi moved quickly after Trump’s comment, assigning Hassett and Warsh a 35% chance each of being named the next Fed chair. Waller, whom Trump didn’t mention in the interview, has a 15% probability of being his pick and his odds decreased somewhat following the interview.

Both Hassett and Warsh have advocated for lower interest rates. Current Chair Powell, whose term ends in May 2026, has been a frequent target of Trump’s criticism for keeping rates elevated.

Fed Governor Adriana Kugler announced Friday she is resigning effective this week, which Trump said “was a pleasant surprise.” The move allows Trump to install someone to the Fed Board of Governors, and the nominee could move into the chairman role when Powell’s term expires.

Judy Shelton, former economic advisor to Trump in his first term, was assigned a 6% chance to be Powell’s replacement on Kalshi. David Malpass, former government official who served as president of the World Bank Group from 2019 to 2023, currently has a 4% probability on the prediction market.

Trump himself even received a 1% vote to lead the Fed on Kalshi.