Has gold lost its luster?
Traders on both sides of the question are duking it out in the options pit of one ETF that’s trying to buck the multi-month downtrend in the commodity.
Options volumes leaned bullish in both the SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) and VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) on Tuesday as GDX posted a more than 4% rally despite gold futures dropping on the session. Bullish flows were particularly strong in GDX, with call volumes outpacing puts more than 5 to 1 at one point of the trading day.
In GDX, more than 10,000 calls traded at the ask or above, meaning they were likely bought, compared to 4,400 puts bought, according to data from ThinkOrSwim. The most popular contracts by volume were the 100 and 110-strike calls expiring June 18, according to SpotGamma. Those calls need big double-digit rallies from here to break even.
A separate, much bigger trader in the same GDX market doesn’t think that will happen.
The biggest premium trade of the day was someone spending more than $1 million – more than the combined premium of both the 100 and 110 calls – scooping up thousands of the 85-strike puts expiring July 17.
The opposing trades offer a perspective on what could be a make-or-break moment for the precious metal as geopolitics remain unpredictable and the interest-rate outlook gets muddied as well. Gold’s down almost 20% from its all-time high in January but still up 89% the past two years. Gold miners, by comparison, are up 144% over the same time period.
Gold futures, 1 year
Traders looking for another clue might find one in options trading around gold miner Newmont Mining, with activity on Tuesday nearing 100,000 contracts and almost $500M of options premium, according to Spotgamma. The trading skewed notably bearish, with millions of call sales including one of the biggest trades of the day, a $22 million deep in-the-money call sale, often a sign of someone exiting a stock position.
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