The upcoming earnings reports from six of the ‘Magnificent 7’ mega-cap giants—Tesla (NASDAQ:), Alphabet (NASDAQ:), Microsoft (NASDAQ:), Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:), Amazon (NASDAQ:), and Apple (NASDAQ:)—are set to move markets, given their collective market cap of an astonishing $13.5 trillion.
Source: Investing.com
The group is expected to deliver aggregate earnings growth of 13.1% year-over-year on 11.7% higher revenues. However, individual performances will vary, with some companies poised to outperform expectations while others face significant challenges.
Tesla and Google-parent Alphabet kick off the ‘Big Tech’ earnings season on Wednesday, July 23, with Tesla under pressure from negative fair value signals and Alphabet flashing rare upside potential.
Meta and Microsoft follow on Wednesday, July 30—both with strong health but trading above fair value. Apple and Amazon are then scheduled to report on Thursday, July 31, but only Amazon combines quality with a valuation edge.
Here’s a preview of what to expect in their upcoming earnings reports, including forecasts and key factors that could make some winners and others potential losers.
Company Highlights
Meta and Microsoft are poised for robust earnings growth, with Meta expected to deliver $44.72 billion in revenue and EPS of $5.85, and Microsoft targeting $73.79 billion in sales and a profit of $3.37 per share—each outpacing their peers on both top- and bottom-line growth.
Alphabet and Amazon also ride a wave of double-digit projected revenue expansion (Alphabet: $93.9B revenue, $2.17 EPS; Amazon: $162.1B revenue, $1.32 EPS), reflecting strong AI and cloud tailwinds.
In contrast, Tesla and Apple are the group’s weak links heading in: Tesla faces a forecasted -14% revenue drop and muted $0.40 EPS, while Apple’s expected $89.0B revenue and $1.42 EPS reflect a flat consumer tech cycle and soft China sales.
As always, the market’s attention will be glued to any new AI guidance, partnerships, or product reveals, as these have proven to be the key catalysts for outsized moves among the tech giants this year.
Company Health Scores and Fair Value
Source: InvestingPro
These six mega-cap titans show a wide split in financial health and valuation heading into earnings, as per the quantitative models in InvestingPro. Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft all boast “GREAT” InvestingPro Financial Health scores, while Apple and Tesla trail with “GOOD” ratings.
Note: Financial Health Scores range from 0-5, with higher scores indicating stronger financial health.
On valuation, only Amazon and Alphabet trade near or slightly below their fair value, while Tesla, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft all appear modestly to significantly overvalued versus their InvestingPro fair value estimates.
Key Takeaways Before Earnings
Alphabet and Amazon are the only two with both a robust health score and positive fair value upside, suggesting they offer the best value-for-risk profile as earnings approach.
Microsoft and Meta have strong health but are trading well above fair value—investors are paying a premium for their AI momentum.
Tesla is the most stretched, with a hefty negative fair value gap and the lowest health score in the group, making it a wild card for the risk-tolerant.
Apple’s muted growth and negative fair value upside reinforce its laggard status this quarter.
Conclusion
In short, this earnings season will separate the AI haves from the cyclical have-nots, and the results will set a clear tone for the market’s leadership for the remainder of the year.
Companies successfully monetizing AI investments while maintaining core business strength will emerge as winners, while those struggling to adapt face potential multiple compression.
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Disclosure: At the time of writing, I am long on the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq 100 via the SPDR® S&P 500 ETF (SPY), and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ). I am also long on the Invesco Top QQQ ETF (QBIG), Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP), and VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH).
I regularly rebalance my portfolio of individual stocks and ETFs based on ongoing risk assessment of both the macroeconomic environment and companies’ financials.
The views discussed in this article are solely the opinion of the author and should not be taken as investment advice.
Follow Jesse Cohen on X/Twitter @JesseCohenInv for more stock market analysis and insight.
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