broke out of the downward channel it had been trading in for the past few months, but then pulled back to the key $100,000 level. This drop led to a weekly decline of nearly 8%, and traders have turned more cautious. The price found some buying interest around $99,500, which matches the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the April to October rally — an important technical support zone.
At the moment, Bitcoin is trying to stay above $99,500. However, the low trading volume shows that these small rebounds may not last. For a stronger recovery, the price needs to close above $105,000 on a daily basis. If that happens, Bitcoin could regain momentum and move toward the $113,000 range. A move above $113,000 would be a key signal that the market is once again aiming for new highs before the year ends.
Meanwhile, the Stochastic RSI remains in the oversold zone on both daily and weekly charts. Looking at past price trends, these levels often signal the start of a potential upward move. Still, this setup needs confirmation from the price itself. For that to happen, Bitcoin needs to close above $100,000 on the weekly chart this month and above $105,000 on the daily chart during any upward attempts.
Downside Risks Persist
From another angle, the daily chart shows that a Head and Shoulders pattern has formed. The decline began near $124,000 and became more visible when selling pressure increased around $112,000–114,000 in the right shoulder area. Bitcoin then dropped below the $105,500–106,500 range, which acted as the neckline of the pattern. This move confirmed a short-term downtrend. The neckline area has now turned into resistance, and unless Bitcoin closes above it on the daily chart, any upward move is likely to stay weak and limited.
If the decline continues, the first strong support lies around $99,500. This level might trigger short-term rebounds, but if it fails to hold, the price could slide further toward $93,600, which marks the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. Based on past trends, buyers might try to regain control there. However, if this zone also breaks, the drop could extend toward $86,000–85,200, matching the theoretical target of the Head and Shoulders pattern and aligning with the 0.786 Fibonacci support.
Bitcoin’s short-term direction now depends on how it moves around the $99,500–100,000 zone. As long as the price stays above this area, there is still a chance for a recovery. However, without steady closes above $105,500, the bearish outlook remains intact. For now, sellers still have control, and the market is moving within a key decision range.
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Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only. It is not intended to encourage the purchase of assets in any way, nor does it constitute a solicitation, offer, recommendation or suggestion to invest. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky, so any investment decision and the associated risk belongs to the investor. We also do not provide any investment advisory services.
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