Bitcoin: Price Compression Below $95K May Spark a Larger Move Ahead

Bitcoin traded through a volatile week as mixed macro signals and uneven flows from ETFs and exchanges pulled the market in different directions.

The OBO pattern we have tracked for some time led to a sharp retreat from above $100,000 toward the $85,000 area. This zone has acted as a key medium-term floor because it aligns with the pattern objective and an important Fibonacci support level.

The market tested this floor again during the past week. Momentum has since slowed, and the broader trend has shifted into a phase of consolidation and a search for a clear direction after the recent rapid decline.

Bitcoin Price Stabilizes After November Pullback

On the macro side, stayed low, which keeps the soft landing scenario in play. Markets continued to price in a 25 basis point rate cut at the . In principle, lower interest rates and easier financial conditions create a supportive medium and long-term environment for assets such as Bitcoin.

Even so, the sharp pullback in November turned this supportive narrative into a phase of profit taking and risk reduction at first, which lifted short-term volatility.

On the regulatory side, China’s firm position, once again declaring crypto transactions illegal, remains a drag on Asian demand. By contrast, the CFTC’s effort to bring spot crypto contracts onto regulated futures exchanges in the US and the clearer MiCA framework in Europe represent constructive steps for broader Bitcoin adoption.

These regulatory shifts have limited influence on short-term price action, yet they offer a more favourable backdrop for institutional risk assessments over time.

The main pressure on the Bitcoin market came from steady outflows in US spot Bitcoin ETFs through November and early December. A portion of the fast inflows from previous months left the market through profit-taking, which created downward pressure.

Even so, large institutional players continued to move sizeable amounts of away from exchanges, and several major banks are preparing to offer crypto ETPs to clients from early 2026. This builds a base of forward-looking institutional demand.

In short, ETF outflows and profit taking shaped the near-term weakness. The broader setup still leans constructive as the outlook for a rate cut firms up and the regulatory landscape gains clarity. Together, these forces may create a friendlier backdrop for Bitcoin in the medium and long term.

Technical Outlook for Bitcoin

On the daily chart, the target zone of the head and shoulder pattern from the recent decline has been met, and Bitcoin has built a firm base near 85200, the Fib 0.786 level from the April to October rise. Price tested this band twice and bounced each time, which signals that this zone has become the key medium-term support.

From this support, BTC lifted back above the 91000 area, the Fib 0.144 level tied to the latest downswing. Price is now moving in a tight horizontal range around this band. In the next leg of any recovery, the 94700 area, aligned with the Fib 0.236 level, stands out as the first meaningful resistance.

On the other hand, even though the short-term exponential averages have eased compared to last week, their alignment still signals a downward main trend. The price has held above the 8-day EMA, yet daily closes above the 21-day EMA remain essential for any genuine trend shift. Until that happens, this move reads as a strong rebound inside a broader downward structure.

The Stochastic RSI has moved into the overbought zone again, which raises the risk of a slowdown, a squeeze, and a short-term pullback within the 91000 to 95000 band. The first key threshold for the upside case is 94700. If price achieves strong closes above that level, the psychological 100000 mark and the nearby Fib 0.382 level at 100630 become the next targets. Sustained action above 100000 would open the wider resistance zone between 105400 and 110000.

In the downside risk case, 91000 is the first pivot support. A move below this level can shift attention back to the support zone near 85250. Daily closes under this area can trigger another leg of retracement toward the broader support band between 75000 and 78000.

For now, both the fundamental picture and the technical structure show a digestion phase after profit taking, with price moving between the lows near 85000 and the resistance zone in the 95k to 100k range. The 100000 mark remains the key level for a clear directional signal.

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Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only. It is not intended to encourage the purchase of assets in any way, nor does it constitute a solicitation, offer, recommendation or suggestion to invest. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky, so any investment decision and the associated risk belongs to the investor. We also do not provide any investment advisory services.