On-chain data shows rising institutional dominance, falling retail investor activity.
Geopolitical risks and ETF inflows may support Bitcoin’s medium-term rally.
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is moving sideways around $105,000 as global markets show mixed price trends. This price level has become an important point for Bitcoin, given both technical signals and broader economic developments in June.
One key event was the decision to keep steady at 4.25%–4.50%. This move did not give a clear direction for Bitcoin. Fed Chair stated that interest rates should remain stable as long as the economy remains strong, which delayed market hopes for a rate cut. Normally, this kind of statement could have been seen as negative for Bitcoin.
But despite the Fed’s hawkish tone, Bitcoin has remained strong.
This suggests that investors are now also pricing in rising geopolitical risks, not just Fed policy. Even with other unusual developments affecting markets, Bitcoin’s ability to stay near the $100,000 level supports continued bullish expectations in the medium term.
Although Bitcoin does not behave like traditional safe-haven assets such as gold, rising tensions in the Middle East suggest it is starting to be viewed as a safer alternative rather than just a speculative asset. While interest from individual investors has been weak during this period, steady institutional buying is one of the strongest signs of this shift.
On-Chain Data Shows Rising Institutional Dominance
Glassnode data shows that the number of transactions on the Bitcoin network is decreasing while the overall volume is rising. This suggests that institutional and large investors now make up most of the network’s activity.
Supporting this, the average transaction size has increased to $36,000, and transactions over $100,000 make up 89% of the total volume. Additionally, low transaction fees indicate that the market is dominated by large-scale investors rather than individual ones.
Santiment data supports this view: the share of small investors in the market is shrinking, while large wallets continue to accumulate. According to historical trends, Santiment analysis suggests that this kind of shift often comes before upward price movements.
At the same time, Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw nearly $400 million in weekly inflows. This steady institutional fund flow serves as a strong support mechanism. While Bitcoin’s current price action points to a cooling phase, these strong inflows—despite selling pressure—suggest that a full correction has not yet begun.
How Geopolitical Risks Can Affect Bitcoin?
On the geopolitical front, the Iran-Israel conflict and the potential for renewed trade tensions between the US and China are raising risk perceptions in the market. Typically, such tensions lead to a flight from riskier assets—but recently, Bitcoin has begun to behave more like gold.
This stable performance in the Bitcoin market is also driving higher futures trading volume. Overall, with no major policy shifts from the Fed, market attention has turned toward geopolitical developments and movements in the spot ETF space.
Technical Outlook for Bitcoin
Bitcoin has held above the $100,000 level for the past six weeks. This period can be seen as a cooling-off phase during ongoing uncertainty in global markets. The current stability keeps hopes alive for a continued rally. However, much of this depends on whether institutional support remains strong.
In the weekly outlook, Bitcoin’s sideways movement is creating pressure, with the Stochastic RSI indicator showing signs of a possible correction in the overbought zone. This highlights $103,000 (Fib 0.236) as a key support level. If Bitcoin closes the week below this level, the selling pressure may increase. In that case, support zones could emerge at $97,600, $93,200, and $88,800 in the short to medium term.
At the moment, crypto investors appear to be managing risk perception effectively. Any developments that boost risk appetite in the coming days could act as an additional catalyst for Bitcoin. From a technical standpoint, weekly closes above $106,500 would be a strong signal for the rally to continue. This could open the door to new highs in the $114,000–$125,000 range.
In conclusion, Bitcoin’s next direction may depend on whether it breaks out of the narrow $103,000–$106,500 range on a weekly closing basis. Key factors to watch include the geopolitical backdrop, US-China trade tensions, and macroeconomic data that could influence the Fed’s interest rate decisions.
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Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only. It is not intended to encourage the purchase of assets in any way, nor does it constitute a solicitation, offer, recommendation or suggestion to invest. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky, so any investment decision and the associated risk belongs to the investor. We also do not provide any investment advisory services.
