Bitcoin holds key support at $108K and now tests $112.3K, a critical technical pivot.
A breakout above $115K–$117K could confirm trend reversal and open path to $119K–$125K.
Fed rate decisions, labor data, and geopolitical risks remain decisive for Q4 rally prospects.
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Since July, has attempted several recoveries with brief upward pushes, but the broader price action has remained corrective. Profit-taking after the August peak near $124,400 confirmed the bearish phase. Last week, however, support around $108,000 prevented deeper losses and limited selling pressure.
This week, momentum has turned positive again. Buyers have gained strength since midweek, driving the price into the $110,000–$112,000 range and testing $112,000 today. The $112,300 level stands out technically, as it aligns with both the midpoint of the descending channel and the three-month exponential moving average (EMA).
Critical Levels for the Short-Term Trend
A daily and weekly close above $112,300 could reinforce Bitcoin’s recovery and open the door to $114,600. Clearing that resistance would mark the end of the corrective structure in place since July.
In September, trading between $110,000 and $114,000 is likely to remain pivotal. Sustained closes above $115,000 would confirm an uptrend heading into the final quarter.
Key levels to watch:
Support: $112,000 | $107,700 | $102,000 | $82,000 (deep downside risk)
Resistance: $112,300 | $114,600 | $115,000–$117,000 (crucial weekly threshold) | $119,000 (Fib 1.414) | $125,450 (Fibonacci expansion target)
A weekly close within $115,000–$117,000 would mark Bitcoin’s first breakout from this zone since July, likely coinciding with a channel breakout on the daily chart and signaling a strong bullish reversal.
What’s Needed for a Rally
For a genuine rally to emerge, Bitcoin must breach these resistance zones and overcome key psychological barriers. If the Stochastic RSI on the weekly chart shifts upward while the price holds above $115,000–$117,000, the bullish case strengthens. Under this scenario, the market could revisit $119,000 and $125,000—levels last tested in July and August. A sustained break above these regions would raise the probability of Bitcoin entering a three-digit rally, with potential targets in the $180,000–$190,000 range.
Fundamental Outlook: Fed Policy to Drive Sentiment
While the technical picture is improving, fundamentals remain decisive. Macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve policy continue to shape crypto market direction. Weak employment data earlier this week boosted for a September rate cut, and today’s report added another key input for traders. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US economy added only 22,000 jobs in August, well below expectations and the latest evidence of a summer slowdown in the labor market. The climbed to 4.3%, signaling renewed weakness in hiring momentum.
Beyond rates, questions around the Fed’s independence are starting to weigh on risk appetite. While deeper cuts could draw institutional inflows, doubts about central bank credibility may dampen enthusiasm. Trade tensions, tariff policies, and ongoing geopolitical risks—particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict—add further layers of uncertainty.
Bottom Line
Despite its recent correction, Bitcoin has not lost its underlying bullish bias. Technical signals are mixed, but a decisive break of resistance levels could put the bullish scenario firmly back in play by the final quarter of 2025. Whether this shift evolves into a true rally will depend as much on fundamentals—especially Fed decisions and global market conditions—as on technical momentum.
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