Bitcoin holds above $106,000 support, showing signs of recovery within its price channel.
A close above $115,000 could confirm a bullish breakout toward $119,000–$125,000 levels.
Global factors like US–China talks and Fed policy may drive short-term volatility.
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Last week, ’s price bounced back strongly from the $106,500 level, stopping its recent decline. This level is an important support zone because it matches both the lower boundary of the bearish channel and the Fib 1.0 retracement level (106,159). Holding steady here suggests that Bitcoin is still moving within its current price channel.
At the start of this week, BTC rose and briefly moved above the mid-channel level of $109,800. Since this level has now turned into a short-term support, it signals a possible shift toward a bullish (upward) trend.
On the daily chart, the $112,000 level is acting as an intermediate resistance, overlapping with the 3-month EMA (Exponential Moving Average). If Bitcoin stays above this level, it could gain fresh momentum and move up toward the $114,600 range. This zone is important because it marks both the upper boundary of the channel and a key threshold that could signal a trend breakout.
However, for this upward move to count as a true trend reversal, Bitcoin needs to close above $115,000 on the weekly chart. A strong close above that level would confirm a breakout from the bearish channel and set a short-term target in the $119,000–$125,500 range.
If Bitcoin breaks above the channel, the Fib 1.414 ($119,077) and Fib 1.618 ($125,443) levels will serve as the next technical targets. Should the bullish momentum continue, the $130,000–$137,000 zone could become a potential target range toward the end of the year.
What Are the Indicators Saying?
On the daily chart, the Stochastic RSI has formed a bullish crossover, moving out of the oversold zone. This suggests that Bitcoin’s price may continue to recover in the short term. On the weekly chart, the Stochastic RSI is still in the oversold area, but a weekly close above $115,000 could confirm a potential upward reversal there as well.
The short-term EMA indicators also show that the downtrend is losing strength. If the price moves above $112,000, the “buy” signals from these averages may grow stronger. However, if Bitcoin closes below $110,000, it would be seen as a sign of weakness.
If the price drops below $110,000, it would suggest that the current recovery might be temporary. In that case, Bitcoin could retest the $106,000 level. If this support fails, the next downside target zone could shift to the $97,000–$99,000 range, which represents the lower boundary of the bearish channel.
Macro Outlook: Trade War and Fed expectations come to the fore
Recent movements in the crypto market have been heavily influenced by the US–China trade negotiations. Bitcoin, which fell sharply after US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements, began to recover once the diplomatic tone between the two countries started to improve.
The upcoming Trump–Xi meeting at the end of the month could play a key role in shaping the market’s direction. If the meeting produces positive outcomes, global risk appetite is likely to increase, which could boost Bitcoin demand and push prices above $115,000. However, if there are signs of disagreement or tension, investors may become more cautious, leading to renewed selling pressure on BTC.
Meanwhile, the recent slowdown in gold prices, often seen as a safe-haven asset, has prompted some investors to shift funds toward Bitcoin. This move suggests a growing short-term interest in riskier assets. If the global economy maintains its steady outlook, more funds moving out of gold could continue to flow into BTC, supporting its upward momentum.
Another key factor on the macroeconomic front is the interest rate adjustment process.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s ability to hold above the $106,000 support level continues to strengthen recovery signals. The $112,000–$115,000 range remains a critical zone for determining the next direction. A break above this range could put the market back on a positive, upward path. Still, global risk sentiment remains fragile — developments related to the US–China trade talks and Fed policy updates are likely to keep short-term volatility high.
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Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only. It is not intended to encourage the purchase of assets in any way, nor does it constitute a solicitation, offer, recommendation or suggestion to invest. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky, so any investment decision and the associated risk belongs to the investor. We also do not provide any investment advisory services.
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