Forrester forecasts that Asia Pacific tech spending will grow 9.3% in 2026, with the region spending over US$437 billion on new technology between 2026 and 2030. Growth is driven by software, services, communications equipment, and tech outsourcing, with computer equipment seeing the strongest category growth at 13.7%, fueled by hyperscaler investment in AI-optimized data centers. But the headline number overstates how much technology CIOs will actually be able to buy. Here’s why:
Software and hardware inflation are compressing purchasing power. Software prices are rising as vendors embed AI capabilities into renewal pricing. In Australia, software inflation is running at nearly four times the general consumer price index. Hardware costs are climbing due to global component shortages, tariff pass-through on China-origin supply chains, and surging demand for AI accelerators. The 9.3% growth figure includes these price increases, which means the real volume of technology acquired is growing more slowly than the headline suggests.
The Strait of Hormuz crisis adds a significant GDP headwind. The closure of the strait since early March has disrupted roughly 20% of global oil supply, with Brent crude trading around $100 per barrel. Asia Pacific bears disproportionate exposure: China, India, Japan, and South Korea account for approximately 75% of Hormuz oil exports. Japan sources around 95% of its crude from the Middle East; South Korea, roughly 70%. If the disruption persists beyond Q2 2026, the GDP compression across energy-importing APAC markets will tighten IT budgets — particularly in Japan, South Korea, Thailand, and parts of South Asia.
Country-level growth reflects divergent dynamics. India leads at 13.4%, driven by cloud adoption and data localization investment. China’s 10.7% growth is supported by AI infrastructure build-out exceeding US$70 billion but constrained by weak domestic demand. Australia will grow 8.6%, outpacing its 2.2% GDP growth, while Singapore’s 6% growth is limited by a persistent talent shortage. Southeast Asia remains strong, with Vietnam at 15.4% and Indonesia at 12.5%.
CIOs operating across APAC should factor energy-driven inflation and tariff-related hardware cost increases into their 2026 budget assumptions. The growth is real, but so is the gap between what budgets allocate and what those budgets can deliver.
Forrester clients can read our Asia Pacific Tech Market Forecast, 2026 To 2030 report. Have any thoughts? Forrester clients can schedule a guidance session or inquiry for more insights and to explore the narratives within this forecast.
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