Warsh sprints ahead in Fed chair race, prediction markets show

President Donald Trump on Friday said he’d prefer to keep National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett in his position as top economic advisor, a statement that could change the dynamic in the race to see who will replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair.

During an appearance in the White House, Trump said, “I see Kevin’s in the audience, and I just want to thank you. You ⁠were fantastic on television today.”

“I actually want to keep you where you are, if you want to know the truth,” he added.

Hassett has been considered a leading contender to take the central bank reins, competing closely with former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh.

Trump has been a fierce Fed critic and has indicated he will replace Powell when his term as chair ends in May. Hassett and Warsh are two of five finalists for the position, a group that also includes current Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman.

Trump has indicated he will name a Powell successor this month but hasn’t provided a specific date.

Turning to White House chief of staff Susie Wiles, Trump said, “We don’t ‍want to him lose [Hassett], Susie, but we’ll see how it all works out.”

After Trump spoke, traders on predictions market site Kalshi raised their bets to a 60% chance of Warsh getting the job, compared with just 16% for Hassett and 14% for Waller.

As recently as Wednesday, Warsh and Hassett were in a near dead heat.

“It is not certain this is a definitive signal — the President has given various signals at various times and appears to enjoy the drama of this Celebrity Apprentice season — but it does look as if the former Fed governor is for the first time the clear front-runner,” wrote Krishna Guha, head of global policy and central bank strategy at Evercore ISI.

Traders on Polymarket expressed a similar dynamic, with Warsh, at 60%, leading Hassett, at 15%, and Waller at 13%. Traders are giving little odds to Bowman and BlackRock fixed income chief Rick Rieder, the other two candidates considered finalists.

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship.