The U.S. Government sells debt on a revolving door basis, yet most people aren’t aware of the mechanism by which this is done. Luckily, ZeroHedge covers the debt auction results, which allows us to articulate one of the structural problems in the Federal Reserve system. As reported last week:
The week’s lone coupon auction priced at 1pm when the Treasury sold $13 BN in 20Y paper, in a solid if not stellar auction.
Deciphering the trader talk in the article, the Treasury took on an additional $13 billion in debt that is repayable in 20 years, paying an annual interest rate of 4.883% (approximately $635 million a year).
A 2.68 bid-to-cover ratio means that for every $1 of debt issued, there were $2.68 in bids, suggesting a healthy market appetite. Only so many entities can lend billions of dollars at a time; here are the three who took the auction:
Direct bidders (institutional money like pension funds) took 22.9%;Indirect bidders (foreign central banks) took the brunt at 67.4%;Primary Dealers (JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, etc.) held just 9.7%.
Since primary dealers are mandated to buy, and since the Fed will buy from them, the free-market price and demand for debt remains a mystery. Therefore, without the Fed’s anti-capitalist intervention, demand would be lower and yields would be higher.
A $13 billion debt still seems incomprehensible, so let’s assume you had $100,000 today and had to keep it in a cash equivalent for the next two decades. What would you choose? If you bought that Treasury, you’ll be earning 4.883% interest each year, and in 2046 you’ll get your principal back in full.
Whether rates go up or down, neither outcome will be pleasant, leaving you, the bondholder, caught between the Unthinkable and the Unimaginable.
The Unthinkable: Should the market demand a higher yield, or should the Fed raise rates, your 4.883% return will no longer be a good deal. If you sell, you’ll take a loss. On a societal level, for each 1% increase in rates, the interest burden on the $39 trillion debt climbs toward an additional $390 billion annually as the debt rolls over. At some point, the interest alone begins to choke the life out of the economy. If there is any consolation, maybe this fights “price inflation,” but even that’s uncertain, and prices could still skyrocket along with rates.
The Unimaginable: U.S. politicians find a way to balance the books and take on less debt… but in reality, history has shown this to be impossible. In all likelihood, the Fed will have to keep rates low and the debt spiral manageable by increasing its bond purchases and the money supply, i.e., inflation in the traditional and honest sense. In this scenario, your 4.883% bond is worth more on paper, but your currency will likely be worth a lot less.
The Fed faces an impossible task. To abstain from intervention is to allow high interest rates to compound on an unrepayable debt. To intervene is to flood the system with debased currency. Either way, the bondholder is the casualty, and the capital structure is the cost.
Feel free to sit with your 4.883% bond and wait for the Fed to make a move. In the end, it almost doesn’t matter whether rates go up or down; you’re simply watching society erode, one basis point at a time. The interest rate is the symptom; the debt mechanism is the disease.
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