No Result
View All Result
SUBMIT YOUR ARTICLES
  • Login
Wednesday, October 1, 2025
TheAdviserMagazine.com
  • Home
  • Financial Planning
    • Financial Planning
    • Personal Finance
  • Market Research
    • Business
    • Investing
    • Money
    • Economy
    • Markets
    • Stocks
    • Trading
  • 401k Plans
  • College
  • IRS & Taxes
  • Estate Plans
  • Social Security
  • Medicare
  • Legal
  • Home
  • Financial Planning
    • Financial Planning
    • Personal Finance
  • Market Research
    • Business
    • Investing
    • Money
    • Economy
    • Markets
    • Stocks
    • Trading
  • 401k Plans
  • College
  • IRS & Taxes
  • Estate Plans
  • Social Security
  • Medicare
  • Legal
No Result
View All Result
TheAdviserMagazine.com
No Result
View All Result
Home Market Research Economy

Optimism is growing around the UK economy amid U.S.-EU trade disputes

by TheAdviserMagazine
6 months ago
in Economy
Reading Time: 4 mins read
A A
Optimism is growing around the UK economy amid U.S.-EU trade disputes
Share on FacebookShare on TwitterShare on LInkedIn


LONDON — Some investors are expressing a growing optimism about the U.K.’s economic outlook despite the country’s long-standing structural weaknesses, as its neighbors in the European Union deepen their trade dispute with the United States.

That upbeat tone wasn’t reflected in the messaging of the Bank of England, as it held interest rates steady last Thursday, citing increased geopolitical uncertainty and indicators of financial market volatility. However, U.K. economic growth — tepid at best for the last three years — is finally expected to pick up somewhat in 2025, with Bank of America analysts forecasting a 1.4% expansion.

Inflation is still expected to cool back near-target in the months ahead, the labor market is loosening but remains robust, and the U.K. government has a determined focus — at times controversially — to support growth and reduce the national deficit.

Sanjay Raja, chief U.K. economist at Deutsche Bank, said that, on a recent client trip to the U.S. he noted a “budding sense of optimism” around the U.K. not seen in some time.

Key factors included a pivot toward deregulation and focus on more capital spending, the potential for a strong trade deal with the EU in the coming year, and an expectation the the U.K. will “stay in the US’ ‘good books’ as a trade war kicks off,” Raja said in a note earlier this month.

U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed a willingness to spare the U.K. from blanket or targeted tariffs, with expectations bolstered after U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer conducted a friendly trip to the White House in February.

EU flags flutter in front of European Central Bank (ECB) headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany July 18, 2024. 

EU delays implementing first retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods to middle of April

“Talk of a U.S. trade deal also surfaced in client conversations, and there was increased optimism that the U.K. may be spared from direct and widespread tariffs,” Raja said.

Some felt “structural growth could be on the rise after a steady decline since the global financial crisis,” he continued, while a broad European push to increase national defense spending could benefit U.K. corporates. Points of concern for investors remained January’s sell-off in U.K. government debt, fiscal headroom and the sustainability of spending cuts, Raja observed.

Still trade risks

The U.K. may have been spared the worst of Trump’s rhetoric so far — such as his threat of 200% tariffs on EU alcohol imports — but it is not totally immune from Washington’s protectionist push.

Gabriella Dickens, G7 economist at AXA Investment Managers, noted that the U.K. still faces a hit due to the new U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum. The U.K. exported a total of £370 million ($479.7 million) in steel to the U.S. in 2024, according to trade group UK Steel, accounting for 9% of total U.K. steel exports by value. Britain’s aluminum exports to the U.S. totaled were valued at around £225 million last year, the U.K.’s Aluminium Federation says.

The U.K. will also be impacted by any slowdown in global trade, including if this leads to weaker demand in its key partners such as the EU, and if general uncertainty erodes business and consumer confidence, Dickens told CNBC.

“Investor sentiment may be boosted if the U.K. manages to avoid further tariffs, particularly if trade tensions ramp up with the EU,” Dickens said. In the unlikely event Trump follows through with his prior threat of blanket 25% tariffs on the EU, a “material boost” would be provided to the U.K. as manufacturers would likely look to relocate, she said.

EU flags flutter in front of European Central Bank (ECB) headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany July 18, 2024. 

EU delays implementing first retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods to middle of April

The U.K. could still avoid further tariffs, since it has no large trade surplus with the U.S. and the majority of that is services-based. It has already pledged to boost its defense spending as a share of gross domestic product (GDP), avoiding much of Trump’s ire with other nations.

“Neither of these have spared the U.K. from the steel and aluminum tariffs, though,” Dickens added.

Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter Investors, also stressed the existing impact of steel and aluminum duties on the U.K. and flagged potential risks from the reciprocal U.S. tariffs due to be announced early April.

“The idea that VAT is some kind of tariff seems to have taken hold in the White House, placing the U.K. once again at considerable risk of coming into the crosshairs of U.S. trade policy,” James told CNBC.

“Whilst the reality is likely being willfully misrepresented by the White House in order to gain a negotiating advantage, the U.K. is not yet in the clear and, if Donald Trump’s demands on Ukraine are anything to go by, any future trade deal would likely come at a heavy price.”

James added that, while the government was improving the foundations of the U.K. economy in the long run, growth remained on a weak trajectory in the near term, with businesses hit by higher costs stemming from last year’s budget and continued issues with an “older and sicker workforce.”

“Whilst the [U.K.] stock market has so far benefitted from its perception of defensiveness, a modest starting valuation and a strong performance from heavily represented sectors such as oil and gas and financials, the divergence from the performance of the economy could lead to the large cap index continuing to outperform domestic stocks,” she said.



Source link

Tags: disputeseconomygrowingoptimismtradeU.S.EU
ShareTweetShare
Previous Post

By 2030, Akasa will be among 30 largest global airlines by fleet size; may grab 15% India market share in 5-7 years: Vinay Dube

Next Post

Wix employees gain $102m on options

Related Posts

edit post
Private payrolls declined in September by 32,000 in key ADP report coming amid shutdown data blackout

Private payrolls declined in September by 32,000 in key ADP report coming amid shutdown data blackout

by TheAdviserMagazine
October 1, 2025
0

Private payrolls saw their biggest decline in two-and-a-half years during September, a further sign of labor market weakening that compounds...

edit post
Canadian Govt Prepares To Disarm Civilians

Canadian Govt Prepares To Disarm Civilians

by TheAdviserMagazine
October 1, 2025
0

There has never been a positive outcome when the government sets out to disarm the people. Authoritarian states are the...

edit post
Britain Vs Florida | Armstrong Economics

Britain Vs Florida | Armstrong Economics

by TheAdviserMagazine
September 30, 2025
0

  Living in Florida, I definitely see the difference compared to even New Jersey, where I have been given a...

edit post
Coffee Break: Armed Madhouse – Stopping START

Coffee Break: Armed Madhouse – Stopping START

by TheAdviserMagazine
September 30, 2025
0

This is Naked Capitalism fundraising week. 532 donors have already invested in our efforts to combat corruption and predatory conduct,...

edit post
How the Fourteenth Amendment Empowers Judicial Activism

How the Fourteenth Amendment Empowers Judicial Activism

by TheAdviserMagazine
September 30, 2025
0

In “Government by Judiciary: The Transformation of the Fourteenth Amendment” Raoul Berger argues that the Fourteenth Amendment is treated by...

edit post
The Real Jan. 6th Coup

The Real Jan. 6th Coup

by TheAdviserMagazine
September 30, 2025
0

In my first column after the events of Jan. 6th, 2021, I criticized those who called the protest a “coup,”...

Next Post
edit post
Wix employees gain 2m on options

Wix employees gain $102m on options

edit post
Wildfires force evacuation in North Carolina while it’s still recovering from Hurricane Helene—and also hit South Carolina and New Jersey

Wildfires force evacuation in North Carolina while it’s still recovering from Hurricane Helene—and also hit South Carolina and New Jersey

  • Trending
  • Comments
  • Latest
edit post
What Happens If a Spouse Dies Without a Will in North Carolina?

What Happens If a Spouse Dies Without a Will in North Carolina?

September 14, 2025
edit post
California May Reimplement Mask Mandates

California May Reimplement Mask Mandates

September 5, 2025
edit post
Who Needs a Trust Instead of a Will in North Carolina?

Who Needs a Trust Instead of a Will in North Carolina?

September 1, 2025
edit post
Does a Will Need to Be Notarized in North Carolina?

Does a Will Need to Be Notarized in North Carolina?

September 8, 2025
edit post
DACA recipients no longer eligible for Marketplace health insurance and subsidies

DACA recipients no longer eligible for Marketplace health insurance and subsidies

September 11, 2025
edit post
‘Quiet luxury’ is coming for the housing market, The Corcoran Group CEO says. It’s not just the Hamptons, Aspen, and Miami anymore

‘Quiet luxury’ is coming for the housing market, The Corcoran Group CEO says. It’s not just the Hamptons, Aspen, and Miami anymore

September 9, 2025
edit post
Conagra Reaffirms Outlook Even As Tariffs Add To Inflation

Conagra Reaffirms Outlook Even As Tariffs Add To Inflation

0
edit post
Canadian Govt Prepares To Disarm Civilians

Canadian Govt Prepares To Disarm Civilians

0
edit post
‘Hockey Stick Growth’: Coinbase Hits B in Onchain Loans, Brian Armstrong Sets 0B Target

‘Hockey Stick Growth’: Coinbase Hits $1B in Onchain Loans, Brian Armstrong Sets $100B Target

0
edit post
The First Few Weeks Without a Pension Check — And The Hidden Ripple Effect

The First Few Weeks Without a Pension Check — And The Hidden Ripple Effect

0
edit post
From /Hour to M+ in Real Estate by Doing This

From $10/Hour to $1M+ in Real Estate by Doing This

0
edit post
SIPs for first-timers, lumpsums for veterans in JioBlackRock Flexi Cap Fund: Rishi Kohli

SIPs for first-timers, lumpsums for veterans in JioBlackRock Flexi Cap Fund: Rishi Kohli

0
edit post
Conagra Reaffirms Outlook Even As Tariffs Add To Inflation

Conagra Reaffirms Outlook Even As Tariffs Add To Inflation

October 1, 2025
edit post
‘Hockey Stick Growth’: Coinbase Hits B in Onchain Loans, Brian Armstrong Sets 0B Target

‘Hockey Stick Growth’: Coinbase Hits $1B in Onchain Loans, Brian Armstrong Sets $100B Target

October 1, 2025
edit post
I’m the CEO of an AI startup that finds blind spots in visual data. If missed, it can cripple your AI models

I’m the CEO of an AI startup that finds blind spots in visual data. If missed, it can cripple your AI models

October 1, 2025
edit post
The First Few Weeks Without a Pension Check — And The Hidden Ripple Effect

The First Few Weeks Without a Pension Check — And The Hidden Ripple Effect

October 1, 2025
edit post
Tornado Cash Co-founder Fights to Void Sole Conviction

Tornado Cash Co-founder Fights to Void Sole Conviction

October 1, 2025
edit post
Private payrolls declined in September by 32,000 in key ADP report coming amid shutdown data blackout

Private payrolls declined in September by 32,000 in key ADP report coming amid shutdown data blackout

October 1, 2025
The Adviser Magazine

The first and only national digital and print magazine that connects individuals, families, and businesses to Fee-Only financial advisers, accountants, attorneys and college guidance counselors.

CATEGORIES

  • 401k Plans
  • Business
  • College
  • Cryptocurrency
  • Economy
  • Estate Plans
  • Financial Planning
  • Investing
  • IRS & Taxes
  • Legal
  • Market Analysis
  • Markets
  • Medicare
  • Money
  • Personal Finance
  • Social Security
  • Startups
  • Stock Market
  • Trading

LATEST UPDATES

  • Conagra Reaffirms Outlook Even As Tariffs Add To Inflation
  • ‘Hockey Stick Growth’: Coinbase Hits $1B in Onchain Loans, Brian Armstrong Sets $100B Target
  • I’m the CEO of an AI startup that finds blind spots in visual data. If missed, it can cripple your AI models
  • Our Great Privacy Policy
  • Terms of Use, Legal Notices & Disclosures
  • Contact us
  • About Us

© Copyright 2024 All Rights Reserved
See articles for original source and related links to external sites.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Financial Planning
    • Financial Planning
    • Personal Finance
  • Market Research
    • Business
    • Investing
    • Money
    • Economy
    • Markets
    • Stocks
    • Trading
  • 401k Plans
  • College
  • IRS & Taxes
  • Estate Plans
  • Social Security
  • Medicare
  • Legal

© Copyright 2024 All Rights Reserved
See articles for original source and related links to external sites.