Dear patient readers,
Your humble blogger needs a break from Iran war coverage. Plus there seems to be a dearth of new developments after Trump declared he was making a “final determination” in a Situation Room meeting about a peace deal (which Iran has denied exists) and has been uncharacteristically quiet since then. This could be a harbinger of Bad Things but we do not know for sure yet.
Having said that (do click through for the entire tweet), so far this is an isolated take, which does not make it wrong. Indeed, those hits near Bandar Abbas could have been probes to identify Iranian defensive strategies/asset location. Note that Chas Freeman early on identified the three islands listed below (which Iran took in the days of the Shah and whose ownership the UAE has contested) as feasible-to-capture with limited US forces. Freeman did not see a bigger strategic point save for making the UAE happy. Are these any better as bases for operations than the UAE proper for harassing Iran, or would the point be to act as a spoiler for Oman legitimating the Persian Gulf Authority by assisting from its side of the Strait of Hormuz?
FIGHT FOR STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS COMING: LT. COL. AGUILAR EXPOSES THE CENTCOM WARNING
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar has just decoded the latest US Navy Central Command announcement and the picture is far more dangerous than it first appears. What reads like a routine notice to mariners… https://t.co/cYlFB14oQV pic.twitter.com/NZdCHGr4As
— Mark (@Mark4XX) May 30, 2026
Another theory (again click through):
It wouldn’t surprise me if US invaded and occupied the Oman side of the Strait of Hormuz for control of maritime passage from Musandam Peninsula. UAE could block any Omani military reinforcements from engaging with US occupation forces to retake the remote peninsula.
It would… https://t.co/5IQ4JvjEQF pic.twitter.com/aTqiclhkKQ
— Kathleen Tyson (@Kathleen_Tyson_) May 30, 2026
We have said for the US to try to take islands in/near the Strait of Hormuz was very unlikely to succeed, but did have the one advantage of narrowing the scope of Iranian retaliation. Iran had threatened to take out Gulf State energy infrastructure and desalination plants if the US hit its energy infrastructure or assets (in a non-trivial way). This sort of attack would not seem to fall into that bucket.
Would Iran will sink or seriously damage US Navy vessels ex an aircraft carrier (presumably too many lives, too much toxic waste)? Or does Iran have the precision kit to destroy an aircraft carrier runway w/o sinking it? That would be a neat trick. The best move, if it is in Iran’s ability, would be to damage but not sink US vessels (ideally by disabling navigation or propulsion). A foundering US ship would be yet another well-deserved humiliation.
Below is a super-sized set of links to compensate. Enjoy!
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From Bill L:
4 people are on a small plane. It’s going to crash. There are 3 parachutes. Passenger Brad Pitt says his fans want him to survive, so he grabs a parachute, and exits.
Donald Trump says he’s the best, and smartest President ever, and the country can’t afford to lose him, so he exits. Pope Leo tells the young boy that he should take the last parachute since Leo has lived a long, and satisfying life of service and purpose. The young boy says to the Pope that there are really 2 parachutes, not just one, because Trump took the boy’s backpack, not a parachute.
I Translated Völsa Þáttr for You Norse Mythology & Germanic Lore. Norse Mythology & Germanic Lore (Micael T) “….. can anything be gleaned from the events described in this story about actual pagan practices?”
Understanding the Power of Power Ballads JSTOR. Is this a real category? Does Tina Tuner’s Private Dancer qualify? As a choral singer manque, I like big songs that get bigger, like Can You Hear the People Sing?, Let the River Run (of the New York I once loved that died long ago), and of course warhorses like Jerusalem and compositions that push the limits of bombast like Carmina Burana and Belshazar’s Feast
“Choose ritual. It’s the way home.” The Edgy Optimist (Micael T). Hard to relate if you grew up with no ritual, but the honor walk description is compelling.
It’s time to rediscover the art – and beauty – of repair aeon (Dr. Kevin)
Astronomers finally solve Saturn’s decades-long spin mystery Science Daily (Kevin W)
Plant-Based Diet Associated With Reduced Inflammation Physicians’ Committee (Micael T)
‘It was too easy’: families ask how Kenneth Law enabled so many suicides Guardian (Kevin W)
Sleeping Too Much Might Be Bad for You Now, Because Apparently Nothing Is Safe Vice. I recall reading a study that sleeping 10 hours a night or more was bad for you unless you had been doing it for ten years or more, then there was no correlation with negative outcomes. WTF? I need a ton of sleep, and I think it is for the same reason cats do: if you run on adrenaline, you need a lot of sleep to recover.
Ebola
The WHO reported that the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola circulating in the Democratic Republic of Congo carries a fatality rate of between 30% and 50% among confirmed cases, with 906 suspected infections and 223 suspected deaths recorded so far https://t.co/eeZrKBEcJ8 pic.twitter.com/7mP4SMgd63
— Reuters (@Reuters) May 29, 2026
Climate/Environment
Should we reconsider having children due to fears about the climate crisis? CNN
See that cold blob near Greenland? It sticks out like a sore thumb because virtually all of the rest of the oceans are warming. It’s a canary in a coalmine signaling something is wrong with our climate system. The cause has been debated and a now a new study from Stefan et al.… https://t.co/Zesu3W0MYT pic.twitter.com/QxnLQVI68f
— Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) May 28, 2026
How climate change could be driving ‘killer’ cold outbreaks in oceans CNN
How cheap renewable energy is finally flattening emissions AAAS (Dr. Kevin)
The Paradox That’s Supercharging Climate Change Wired. Sadly, I doubt this will hold. Coal burning is set to increase due to the Strait of Hormuz impasse.
Scientists Discover a Massive Reservoir of Drinking Water Hiding Beneath the Atlantic Ocean ZME Science (Dr. Kevin)
Record heat rots cocoa beans threatening Ivory Coast agriculture PhysOrg
Nuclear expert fears flooded radioactive dump sites in Siberia can threaten Arctic Ocean The Barents Observer
SEC moves to repeal rule that requires companies to report greenhouse gas emissions and climate risk Associated Press (Kevin W)
China?
Huawei and scientists build 2D parallel computing chip that rewrites Moore’s Law South China Morning Post
China’s H200 hunger drives Nvidia chip smugglers to Japan route Asia Times (Kevin W)
Adventures in Vibecoding Policy China Talk
China urges Japan to learn from history, act prudently on intelligence overhaul CGTN
Southeast Asia
Shangri-La Dialogue opens as Asia seeks alternatives to US shield Asia Times (Kevin W)
Global fuel crisis adds urgency to Cambodian push to tap $300 billion energy resources Reuters
Growing fears: Myanmar farmers face fertiliser, fuel dearth Danang News
Pig Feast: Colonialism in our time Chris Lang
Africa
Climate crisis pushes Malawi food farmers into starvation Mail & Guardian
South of the Border
US Military has spent months building up ships and personnel in Caribbean and is ready for invasion of Cuba: report Independent
Delcy’s ‘Gatekeeper’: Sources Say ex-Trump Official Claver-Carone Holds Keys to Caracas VenezuelAnalysis (Robin K)
Bolivian president warns country at ‘breaking point’ after month of protests BBC
US to designate two Brazilian gangs as ‘terrorist’ organisations Aljazeera
Two killed in US strike on another alleged drug boat in Pacific as campaign’s death toll nears 200 Guardian
Guatemala Agrees To Allow US Airstrikes on Its Territory as US Escalates Military Interventions in Latin America Antiwar.com (Kevin W)
European Disunion
EU to broaden import quotas and tariffs against China Financial Times
EU wants crisis powers to seize control of chip supplies Financial Times
Uniper Sees Gas Shortage in Winter If Storage Rates Don’t Speed Up OilPrice
Merz Aims to Shut Down Party Unrest With Vow to Revive Germany Bloomberg. See URL for original headline.
Reading and math skills among the country’s youth and young adults have declined in recent years and differ significantly between those with Swedish and foreign backgrounds Tobias Hubinette via machine translation (Micael T)
Old Blighty
Young first-time buyers face toughest time since financial crisis, says UK housebuilder Guardian
‘It’s not a nice world to bring children into’: Births fall to the lowest level in 50 years BBC
Israel v. The Resistance
No deal announced after Trump meeting to make ‘final determination’ on Iran BBC
ادعای وزیر جنگ آمریکا درباره توافق با ایران
هگست در نشست امنیتی سنگاپور مدعی شد که هرگونه توافقی با ایران، «توافقی خوب» خواهد بود
هگست همچنین در اظهاراتی متناقض مدعی شد که واشنگتن بهدنبال دستیابی به توافق با تهران است
— خبرگزاری تسنیم – خبر فوری (@Tasnimbrk) May 30, 2026
Translated from PersianUS Secretary of War’s Claim About Agreement with Iran
Hagel claimed at the Singapore Security Summit that any agreement with Iran would be a “good agreement”
Hagel also claimed in contradictory statements that Washington is seeking to reach an agreement with Tehran
Iran rejects US peace deal claims; ‘downs’ drone; Trump calls emergency meeting Janta Ka Reporter. Many important clips, including some eye-rollers.
Warmongers Keep Generating AI Atrocity Propaganda About Iran Caitlin Johnstone (Kevin W)
Experts Opposed the Iraq War Daniel Larison
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Doctors in Gaza report that the medical infrastructure is completely collapsed.
Israel has been preventing the entry of basic supplies such as gauze and colostomy bags, as well as fuel for generators needed for running hospitals 24/7.
Patients are dying slowly from infections… pic.twitter.com/4nNqQRo5AJ
— Jadaliyya (@jadaliyya) May 29, 2026
🇵🇸🇮🇱 Israeli forces have shut down the Ibrahimi Mosque in Hebron until further notice.
– Worshippers, guards, employees, and custodians were all ordered out.– Every checkpoint and gate surrounding the site is now sealed. – The Ibrahimi Mosque sits over the Cave of Machpelah,… https://t.co/xPBIG3uAZl pic.twitter.com/QMrps0Yg9f
— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) May 29, 2026
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Congress quietly moves to integrate US and Israeli militaries Responsible Statecraft (guurst)
Israeli spy Jonathan Pollard suggests Egypt and Turkey are next targets for war Middle East Eye (Kevin W)
New Not-So-Cold War
PUTIN HAS COUNTERMANDED LAVROV AND THE GENERAL STAFF – ZELENSKY IS TRUMP’S HIT John Helmer
Russian BREAKTHROUGH in Kostiantynivka! History Legends
Germany and Netherlands to set up NATO command centre in Baltics, Berlin says Euronews
Poland and Romania join the race to produce military drones El Pais
Dead Men and Prisoners Listed in Ukrainian Mobilisation Fraud Scheme Global Geopolitics
Imperial Collapse Watch
Civilization at the Crossroads with Alastair Crooke Solari Report (MDP)
How the ‘American Way of War’ failed in Iran Unherd
Hegseth Avoids Direct Mention of Iran War, Taiwan in Summit Address Bloomberg
On Popper as the Useful Idiot of Anti-History NESCIO13 (Micael T)
Trump 2.0
Judge temporarily blocks Justice Department’s $1.8B ‘anti-weaponization’ fund The Hill
Judge says Kennedy Center board broke law putting Trump’s name on building, blocks closure Associated Press (Kevin W)
US regulator tries to withdraw penalty against Trump donors’ crypto company CNN (Kevin W)
Oz, Iowa Dems disagree on Medicaid Green Gazette (Robin K)
Why so much election analysis is basically useless G. Elliott Morris
Economy
The next food crisis is already in motion World Economic Forum
Bitter Harvest: How The Iran Crisis Is Altering Fertilizer Markets Forbes
U.S. farmers face credit crisis amid Iran war fallout The Street
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Everyone should read what Senior Vice President of Exxon Neil Chapman says about the oil price surge coming in 2-3 weeks
The next wave of the energy shock is approaching fast pic.twitter.com/wCbbKrd6ph
— Robert A. Pape (@ProfessorPape) May 29, 2026
We’re about to make 1970s-style energy shortages great again.
Few understand the history, but it wasn’t the OPEC oil embargoes that created the infamous gas lines in the 1970s. The real cause was the price controls implemented by the federal government. The artificially… https://t.co/1ibe96mm5O
— Ross Hendricks (@Ross__Hendricks) May 28, 2026
Oil Markets on the Brink: Why Today’s Calm May Be Hiding a Historic Supply Shock Financial Sense
Trump’s Oil Confabulations Larry Johnson. A recap of a few key points from the Art Berman talk we highlighted yesterday
Global Air Passenger Traffic Contracts for First Time Since COVID as Middle East Conflict Drives 46.6% Regional Decline AFM
Staggering dip in US tourism is a troubling sign for the future CNN
Why jet fuel crisis could permanently change flying for travellers everywhere Gulf News
Saga warns of cruise fuel shortage risk Telegraph
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PCE Inflation Surges Further Away from Fed’s Target, now Nearly Double the Fed’s Target, and 5+ Years above Target Wolf Richter
Mr. Market Needs a Therpist
Central bank monetary control erodes as fiscal pressures mount GIS
Trump risks triggering financial crisis with Iran war, warns ECB Financial Times
Antitrust
Breaking Up Health Care Conglomerates—The Right Fix Right Now? JAMA (Robin K)
AI
Important, click through:
Google’s own artificial intelligence team just staged one of the most stunning internal revolts in tech history — and it’s aimed squarely at a deal the company signed with the Pentagon.
Workers at Google DeepMind, the company’s elite AI research division based in the UK, voted… pic.twitter.com/WF4h4nAbkl
— 0️⃣BlackBetty ⚓️ (@BabyD1111229) May 26, 2026
Protestware for coding agents Andrew Nesbitt. Our tech maven Dave: “his is the loudest complaint I’ve seen so far from a software developer who does not like Generative AI.”
The AI Boom Has Entered Its ‘Wait, Is This Worth It?’ Era Derek Thompson
What happens next, after the decline of tokenmaxxing? Gary Marcus
How AI Broke the Entry-Level Job Washington Monthly
The Bezzle
Shadow Banking’s $1.47 Trillion Takeover Of U.S. Bank Lending Forbes
TSA Pushes Airports To Opt In To Privatized Security Screening Aviation Week
Blue Origin rocket explodes on the launch pad during an engine-firing test Associated Press
Tesla taxi crashed right into garbage dump: “Terrible speed” Aftonbladet via machine translation (Micael T)
Massachusetts sues UnitedHealth, alleging fraud in state’s Medicaid plans for seniors STAT
Guillotine Watch
SpaceX to Pentagon: Pay up Oligarch Watch
Peter Thiel moves family to Javier Milei’s libertarian Argentina Financial Times. How will he get by with substandard pasta I am told by a foodie friend who went there often and was never able to get good pasta. It turns out after some inquiry she was told they don’t use the right wheat to produce it.
Class Warfare
Americans Are Falling Behind on Their $1.25 Trillion Credit-Card Bill Wall Street Journal
Financial hardship fueling masculinity ‘crisis’ for US men Independent
US Postal Service halts non-essential spending as cash crisis deepens Reuters
A caution against faddist approaches to industrial policy (the old industrial policy rules still apply) Ken Opalo
Hundreds of prolific Wikipedia editors are threatening to go on strike The Verge (Micael T)
Antidote du jour (via):
And a bonus:
That universal feeling of terror when you skip a step accidentally pic.twitter.com/16sVkpeO2h
— Nature Unedited (@NatureUnedited) May 29, 2026
A second bonus:
Fu Bau reconheceu seu cuidador coreano em visita à China… 🥹😭😭 não é IA(créditos: knowhow8090) https://t.co/7rsak6VB51 pic.twitter.com/D9pFK1skee
— Cris (@CrisLee99) May 29, 2026
And a third:
Offered him a cold drink in the 110° heat – he chose a full-body soak instead pic.twitter.com/CFR9sc24wj
— Antidepressant Content (@depressionlesss) May 29, 2026
See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.
