Job openings in October slumped to the lowest level since February 2021, Indeed measure shows

Employment opportunities hit their lowest level in more than 4½ years as October came to a close and the government shutdown dragged on, according to data from jobs site Indeed.

The firm’s Job Postings Index fell to 101.9 as of Oct. 24, the most recent point for which data is available. That’s the lowest since early February 2021 for a measure that uses February 2020 as a baseline value of 100.

The level represents a 0.5% decline from the beginning of the month and a roughly 3.5% tumble from mid-August, the latest point from which Bureau of Labor Statistics data is available.

Under normal conditions, the BLS on Tuesday would have reported its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, a measure that Federal Reserve officials watch closely for indications of slack in the jobs market. With the shutdown on the precipice of being the longest in history, economists and policymakers are left to look at alternative data for big-picture indicators.

The most recent JOLTS report, for August, also indicated an ongoing decline in openings. The BLS reported that job openings totaled 7.23 million, about level with July but down 7% from January.

Indeed’s dashboard of indicators also has shown a pullback in salary offerings as job advertisements have declined. Year-over-year wages as judged by salary offerings in Indeed postings rose 2.5% in August, down from 3.4% in January.

A softening labor market has generated concern from Fed officials. The central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee last week voted 10-2 to lower its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to a target range of 3.75%-4%.

Officials have cited rising risks to the labor market taking precedence over ongoing concerns about inflation holding nearly a full percentage point above the Fed’s 2% target.

“Hiring is slowing. We see this from Indeed, from job postings,” Fed Governor Lisa Cook said Monday. “We’re looking at a panoply of data, and those are real time. We’re not waiting on the unemployment report. There’s reason to be concerned, because there’s a slight uptick in the unemployment rate over the summer.”

The nonfarm payrolls report normally would be released Friday, but that also is not happening. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the BLS count would have shown a decline of 60,000 jobs in October and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.5%.