All of the ominous signs that have preceded previous “suprise attacks” on Iran are here: the markets are closed for the weekend, Kushner and Witkoff are headed to Pakistan for negotiations, and US forces are assembling across West Asia.
Can This Ceasefire Survive Negotiations?
First clue was this tweet from Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi accouncing that he was headed to Islamabad, Pakistan.
Embarking on timely tour of Islamabad, Muscat, and Moscow.
Purpose of my visits is to closely coordinate with our partners on bilateral matters and consult on regional developments.
Our neighbors are our priority.
— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) April 24, 2026
Later Friday evening, it was announced that POTUS Trump’s personal envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff were headed back to Pakistan for more negotiations.
The BBC reported on the confusion:
It’s currently the middle of the night in Islamabad, where Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived just a few hours ago.
The Pakistani capital has been preparing to host a second round of peace talks between the US and Iran, with road closures in place for the past six days.
The White House said earlier this evening that it was sending US special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to the city on Sunday because the Iranians wanted to talk “in person”.
However, Iranian state media is reporting that there are no negotiations with the US planned for Abbas Araghchi’s visit. He will instead focus on reviewing “bilateral matters” between Iran and Pakistan, according to the Iranian embassy.
Given the track record of previous negotiations in the Ramadan War, this takes on an ominous cast, especially given the absence of Vice-President J.D. Vance.
Signs of Military Buildup
Social media gave us plenty of unconfirmed and unverified reasons to worry this was another kayfabe that would lead to renewed attacks on Iran.
The U.S. is amassing forces at Al Dhafra Air Base in the UAE 🇦🇪🇺🇸
A total of 12 U.S. Navy F/A-18 fighter jets have been deployed to the base.
Satellite imagery from April 20 also shows 7 U.S. Air Force aerial refueling aircraft, along with a C-17A strategic transport aircraft. pic.twitter.com/kPLNPzBZVJ
— Egypt’s Intel Observer (@EGYOSINT) April 24, 2026
Footage taken by a passenger at Ben Gurion Airport near Tel Aviv appears to show quite a few U.S. KC-46 Pegasus and KC-135 Stratotanker refueling tankers on the ground. pic.twitter.com/iUe3VciKif
— GMan | GMan’s Chronicle (@FAB87F) April 24, 2026
Iran says they’re ready to respond:
BREAKING: A source close to Ghalibaf says Iran has prepared for “the largest missile launch in history” targeting Israel and US-allied Arab states, ready to fire “upon observing any signs of any strike” this weekend.
— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) April 24, 2026
Also pay no mind to reports that Trump tweeted and deleted something about US planes using Armenian airstrips to attack Iran. That is fake news but it is interesting to speculate who put it out there and why.
Bessent’s Economic Fury
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent posted on X early Friday:
Discussions with countries, including our Gulf and Asian allies, about U.S. dollar swap lines are part of ongoing, routine conversations that USTreasury has been having with our partners over a number of years. They are a testament to the U.S. dollar’s primacy and the strength of America’s economic shield.
Additional swap lines can benefit our nation by reinforcing dollar usage and liquidity internationally, maintaining smooth functioning in dollar funding markets, promoting trade and investment with the United States, and, in hypothetical stress scenarios, preventing disorderly sales of U.S. assets as well as disruptions to U.S. markets, businesses, and households.
Many of these countries have pristine sovereign balance sheets and large dollar holdings – larger than many major economies with whom we maintain permanent swap facilities. I applaud our allies’ foresight and watchful risk management by exploring additional financial buffers during periods of market quiescence.
Extending permanent swap lines can be a major first step in creating new U.S. dollar funding centers in the Gulf and Asia.
Dollar dominance and reserve currency status are strengthened by constant long-term initiatives, including countering the growth of problematic, alternative payment systems.
Under @POTUS, this is American Economic Leadership at work.
Iranian Parliamentary Speaker MB Ghalibaf responded:
Swaps given “to prevent disorderly sale of US assets.” Translation: some holders can’t sell. ICYDK: hidden single-digit % sale cap limits some institutional holders.
Door closes if things escalate. Get out while open.
Their frontline is the yield curve.https://t.co/cVS8UehmAr
— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) April 24, 2026
I guess I should quote a little from the Wednesday NYT story that Speaker Ghalibaf linked to:
“Swap lines, whether it’s from the Federal Reserve or the Treasury, are to maintain order in the dollar funding markets and to prevent the sale of the U.S. assets in a disorderly way,” Mr. Bessent said. “The swap line would both benefit the U.A.E. and the U.S.”
A currency swap would entail the United States purchasing the Emirates’s currency, the dirham, so that it has more dollars for handling its oil sales transactions.
Senator Chris Van Hollen, a Maryland Democrat, questioned the idea of providing economic support for the Emirates and pointed out that President Trump and his family have personal financial ties to the nation. The Trump administration has been facing criticism over the cost of the conflict in Iran, which many view as unnecessary.
If Trump & co. think the Lords of Shale are going to save them, they might have another think coming, per FT.com (archived):
US shale bosses polled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said they did not expect to significantly increase production over the next two years as a result of the “chaos” caused by the Iran war.
According to the anonymous survey of more than 100 oil and gas companies, 43 per cent of executives said they do not expect daily production to increase by more than 250,000 barrels per day in 2026.
For 2027, 32 per cent of the executives said in the quarterly poll released on Thursday that they expected production to rise more than 250,000 b/d but not more than 500,000 b/d.
Who’s winning the standoff? One former White House energy advisor says it’s Iran:
⭕️ Energy Analyst: Iran Has Trump “By the Throat” on Hormuz and Knows It
Robert McNally, founder and president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former White House energy adviser, told Bloomberg that Iran is “dug in” and believes it is winning the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz… pic.twitter.com/lBtjLSQjRf
— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) April 24, 2026
He repeats numerous pieces of dubious Western conventional wisdom about “Iran’s fractured leadership” and estimates that a military campaign to take the Straits of Hormuz would “last about four week”, so yea, salt according to taste.
Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies instructor Esfandyar Batmanghelidj has some thoughts:
We know the blockade won’t collapse Iran’s economy because it has been tried before… by Trump!
Iranian crude oil exports fell to zero during the second half of 2019, storage filled up, and Iran rolled back production of both crude oil and refined fuels by about half.… pic.twitter.com/hXzkv8bz1p
— Esfandyar Batmanghelidj (@yarbatman) April 24, 2026
Greasy Pete Had a Heckuva Presser
A reporter corners Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on a leaked report revealing it will take six months to clear the Strait of Hormuz. Hegseth gets visibly angry about the leak and refuses to answer. The Trump administration is hiding their total strategic failure in Iran. pic.twitter.com/627Ns6vLPg
— Furkan Gözükara (@FurkanGozukara) April 24, 2026
TMZ: When you give these orders to carry out this extreme level of violence, what’s going through your mind and your body? Do you have, like, an adrenaline rush?
Hegseth: It’s a very TMZ question. pic.twitter.com/BmLyfuUpDo
— Acyn (@Acyn) April 24, 2026
Pentagon advisor Elbridge Colby also sent a very interesting email regarding NATO “partner” Spain:
An internal Pentagon email outlines options for the United States to punish NATO allies it believes failed to support U.S. operations in the war with Iran, including suspending Spain from the alliance and reviewing the U.S. position on Britain’s claim to the Falkland Islands, a U.S. official said.
The policy options are detailed in a note prepared by Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon’s top policy adviser, who expressed frustration at some allies’ perceived reluctance or refusal to grant the United States access, basing and overflight rights — known as ABO — for the Iran war, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe the email.
Hazbollah, the Economist, Prostate Cancer Vexing Netanyahu
Hezbollah is still posting strong from Southern Lebanon:
Hezbollah publishes another FPV video from Bint Jbeil showing them striking a field commander’s vehicle. https://t.co/Mutx0rsn7n pic.twitter.com/li1B9SSnk4
— barry with the NED (@bonzerbarry) April 24, 2026
The Economist, perhaps the zionist mouthpiece with the longest standing chided Netanyahu for his “open-ended” wars (archive):
Mr Trump has tired of the open-endedness of Israel’s wars and the disruption they have caused. Arguably, the American president recognises what Israel—both its government and many of its citizens—refuses to accept: that Israel’s current wars are failures. “They dragged on without a clear diplomatic purpose or outcome,” says Jeremy Issacharoff, a former Israeli ambassador who has also been in charge of strategic affairs at the foreign ministry. “The ceasefires are a positive development, but having them dictated to us by America harms Israel’s deterrence and makes it a client state.”
Inspired by Ben-Gurion, Israel’s national-security doctrine was formulated around three Hebrew watchwords: harta’a (deterrence); hatra’a (early warning); and hachra’a (decisive action). The doctrine’s essence was that a tiny country with a small population in a hostile region could not afford to wage long wars frequently. It needed to wield overwhelming military power to deter its enemies, to be capable of detecting when they were planning an attack and to be able to act quickly, ideally pre-emptively, to secure victory in its enemies’ territory. And, importantly, Israel could not rely on its army alone, wrote Ben-Gurion: “a foreign-policy of peace” was, he wrote, a “fundamental component of security”. Israel needed alliances and international legitimacy to secure its future.
Israel’s current leaders have abandoned many of those principles. Hundreds of thousands of reservists have spent many months fighting in Gaza and Lebanon and enforcing Israel’s increasingly brutal occupation of the West Bank. The devastation of Gaza, where Israel has killed over 70,000 people and where the population has been brought close to starvation, has greatly eroded Israel’s international legitimacy and support, even among its allies.
This is more of the “don’t blame Israel, blame that bad Bibi” hasbara we’ve seen so much of, also note they’re understating the deaths in Gaza by up to a factor of ten, but it’s interesting because of the influence the UK rag has in international zionist circles.
But that’s not the worst of Netanyahu’s worries.
Bibi fesses up to prostate cancer diagnosis, via The Washinton Post (archive):
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Friday that he had been diagnosed with and treated for early-stage prostate cancer but delayed revealing his condition for two months to avoid it being used against Israel amid the war with Iran.
In a statement posted on X, Netanyahu said he requested publication of his annual health report be delayed so it would not be released “at the height of the war, to prevent the Iranian terror regime from spreading further false propaganda against Israel.”
The prime minister’s annual health report released on Friday detailed how Netanyahu underwent surgery on Dec. 29, 2024, for an enlarged prostate. The surgery had been reported publicly at the time.
A few months ago during a routine follow-up, doctors discovered early-stage prostate cancer, Aron Popovtzer, director of the oncology department at Hadassah Medical Center in Jerusalem, said in a video statement about Netanyahu’s condition. The prime minister was presented the option of active surveillance or radiation therapy, and he chose to have targeted radiation therapy at Hadassah two and a half months ago.
Accounting for Amazon’s Blasted Data Centers
Forbes reported:
In early March, drone strikes damaged Amazon Web Services data centers in Bahrain and the UAE causing a significant and costly disruption in services. More than a month later, AWS dashboards still showed that services remain “disrupted” from the affected region (though some are now resolved); Amazon refunded March credits for those using them, The Register reported, setting the company back an estimated $150 million. Data centers usually have extensive insurance policies, but almost all of them exclude damage from military conflict, says Tom Harper, data center leader at insurance broker Gallagher. “Typically a policy excludes war. So if it’s an active war, it’s not gonna be covered.”…In early April, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard published a target list that included facilities belonging to Microsoft, Oracle and Amazon—and appeared to threaten Stargate UAE, a $30 billion-plus joint venture between major players including OpenAI, Oracle, SoftBank and Gulf-based investment firm G42 that Trump helped unveil at the White House last year.
Kurdish Corruption Facing Consequences?
I wonder if this is related to the failed attempt to lure Kurdish militias into attacking Iran earlier this year, via The Amargi:
The U.S. Justice Department has filed a civil forfeiture complaint seeking to seize a Beverly Hills mansion allegedly purchased with proceeds from a scheme to defraud the U.S. military and bribe Mansour Barzani, a senior Peshmerga official in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and brother of current Kurdistan Region Prime Minister Masrour Barzani and son of former Kurdistan Region President Masoud Barzani.
According to the complaint, a Virginia-based defense contractor and others obtained more than $700 million from the U.S. Defense Logistics Agency between 2016 and 2020 through fuel delivery contracts linked to Operation Inherent Resolve, the U.S.-led campaign against ISIS.
The Justice Department alleges that the contractor’s officers agreed to pay General Mansour Barzani, a senior Peshmerga official, a bribe of $0.25 per liter in exchange for exclusive access to deliver jet fuel through Erbil International Airport. Competing contractors were allegedly blocked from accessing the airport, while the company received noncompetitive contracts at inflated prices.
Prosecutors say around $30 million from the scheme was transferred to a trust established for Barzani’s private benefit and later used to buy and renovate the Beverly Hills property between 2018 and 2022.
Talking Heads
For our video roundup today, let’s call on Alon Mizrahi and Katie Halper & Aaron Mate of Useful Idiots:
This week we’re looking at the latest in Trump’s regime-change war on Iran and how it’s spilled over into Lebanon, where Israel has just killed another journalist, Amal Khalil.
Khalil was assassinated in a “double tap” strike while she was reporting in South Lebanon: the Israelis first hit her car, and then the house she fled to in an attempt to seek refuge. Israeli soldiers then blocked rescue workers from reaching her and she died under the rubble.
She is the latest in the hundreds of journalists who have been targeted and killed by Israel since October 7th.
To discuss Amal Khalil, the broader regime-change war in Iran, and why Israel is “afraid” of invading Lebanon, we speak with Mohamad Hasan Sweidan, researcher and academic based in Beirut.
Useful Idiots: What explains Hezbollah’s resilience? They lost their leader, they suffered very big setbacks with the pager attacks, and lost their land bridge in Syria, through which they could receive arms from Iran.
But yet on the ground in Lebanon, they’re still able to fight toe-to-toe with Israel and impose serious costs, to the point where now Israel is afraid of invading and engaging in another land war.
So what explains how Hezbollah, which many people thought was on its last legs, has been able to persevere and still be effective militarily?
Mohamad Hasan Sweidan: There are three main reasons.
Number one is ideology. Hezbollah has a very strong religious ideology that doesn’t believe in backing off. It believes it should continue fighting the oppressor until the end.
Number two is that Hezbollah doesn’t have a choice. If they don’t rebuild themselves and if they don’t return to the fight, then all of Hezbollah will be destroyed. It’s a battle of no choice. And when you are in a battle of no choice, you continue till the end.
Number three: Hezbollah represents a huge amount of the people inside of the country. There are Lebanese people who believe in resistance. So if Hezbollah decides to disarm, then you have other Lebanese people who will hold the weapons and go defend the land. Because history proved that the only way to defend the land is when you become a resistance.
Bonus: Jeffrey Sachs on Tucker Carlson.
Jeffrey Sachs on the real origins of the Iran war, and the coming economic devastation.
(0:00) Where Does the Iran War Go From Here?(10:13) Iran’s Growing Power Since the War Began(14:37) Where Does the Hatred Towards Iran Come From?(24:37) The Nuclear Weapon Lie Surrounding… pic.twitter.com/yHg5BvY3Qp
— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) April 24, 2026
We’ll let Explosive Media (the pre-eminent “Iranian Lego video” maker) have the last word:
Explosive Media doing Explosive NEWS things 🫡
Our New Lego-style video, A summary of the past few days: pic.twitter.com/nxTut6Wy8p
— Explosive Media (@ExplosiveMediaa) April 24, 2026
