Sovereign Bitcoin adoption would be the ultimate upside catalyst: Analyst

While many crypto market participants are debating what it might take to trigger a significant Bitcoin daily candle, ProCap chief investment officer Jeff Park has narrowed it down to one key catalyst.

“A black swan event for Bitcoin upside would be sovereign adoption,” Park said during a podcast interview published to YouTube on Thursday.

“If there was, for some reason, all of a sudden, news that a major developed market, OECD country, was going to buy Bitcoin on the balance sheet, and actually do it,” Park explained.

Jeff Park says, “It would have to be real”

Park said such an announcement could potentially push Bitcoin (BTC) to around $150,000 overnight, which would represent a 76% spike from its publication price of $85,089, according to CoinMarketCap.

However, Park emphasized that it must be genuine, not a marketing stunt, a rumor, or a misreading of what government officials have said.

“It would have to be real,” he said. “It couldn’t be this fake version we lived with for about a year,” he said.

Jan3 founder Samson Mow recently said nation-state adoption may happen sooner than people expect. “I think we’re on the tail end of gradually, and we’re at the beginning phases of suddenly,” Mow said.

Park also said some “clarity on resolution” on quantum computing may help Bitcoin’s price action in the short term.

Quantum is a “weird boogie man” to Bitcoiners

“I know quantum is this weird boogie man that people keep talking about,” he said, suggesting the uncertainty may be a factor in why Bitcoin long-term holders have been selling off in recent times.

“If the whales are selling, they are selling for reasons that are probably just as likely to be improbable for the reasons having bought in 2012 and 2011,” he said.

“You have to just ascribe these tail events as catalysts for how their behavior changes,” he said.

However, Glassnode said the recent selling by the Bitcoin whales is nothing out of the ordinary. 

Quantum clarity could stop sell pressure, says Park

“Long-term holders have been realizing profits throughout this cycle, just as they did in every previous one,” Glassnode said on Nov. 14.

Park said some clarity could be “the type of thing that stops at least the selling pressure.”

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“If you stop the selling pressure at least, then you know the buying pressure is actually adding incremental more capital for price action,” he said.

Concern about quantum computing and Bitcoin has been rising recently.

Gianluca Di Bella, a smart-contract researcher specializing in zero-knowledge proofs, said the danger posed by quantum computing isn’t a distant concern; it’s a current one.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin OG Willy Woo recently suggested one “intermediary measure,” involving the transfer of one’s Bitcoin to a SegWit-compatible address, and holding the Bitcoin there until a quantum-safe protocol is developed.

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