The U.S. jobs report has come in stronger than expectations, signaling that the labor market may be stabilizing even amid the U.S.-Iran war. Bitcoin dropped following the data release as traders cut their bets on Fed rate cuts this year.
U.S. Jobs Report Comes In Strong, Bitcoin Falls
The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics release showed that the U.S. added 178,000 jobs in March, way above estimates of 65,000, the largest monthly addition since March 2025. This represents a rebound from the 92,000 jobs the U.S. lost in February, with the figure revised to a loss of 133,000 jobs.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, below estimates of 4.4%, the February figure. It is worth noting that the rebound occurred amid the Iran war, which began at the end of February. This latest jobs report strengthens the case for the Fed to hold rates steady for now, even as some Fed officials have voiced concerns about the labor market amid inflation risks stemming from the war.
The Bitcoin price fell sharply below $67,000 following the release of the U.S. jobs report. The flagship crypto is currently trading at around $66,800, down on the day, according to TradingView data.
With the labor market rebounding, the Fed is more likely to pause rates at the April FOMC meeting and prioritize its inflation mandate over the labor market. This is bearish for risk assets like BTC as these rate cuts typically inject more liquidity into the market.
In addition to the jobs report, Bitcoin is experiencing significant volatility today due to crypto options expiry. $2.1 billion in BTC and ETH options expired today, with $68,000 being the max pain price for Bitcoin.
Traders Reduce Bets On Rate Cuts This Year
Market participants have further reduced their bets on a Fed rate cut this year following the release of the March U.S. jobs report. CME FedWatch data show that traders expect the Fed to hold rates steady throughout this year, while the odds of a rate cut at the FOMC meetings through October are in single digits.
Furthermore, there is only a 12.8% chance that the Fed will lower rates at the December FOMC meeting. It is worth noting that Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled earlier this week that a rate cut would still be possible this year, but only if there were signs of weakness in the labor market.
Crypto traders remain more optimistic about a Fed rate cut this year, with the majority expecting one by October. Polymarket data show a 55% chance of a cut at the October meeting and a 64% chance at the December meeting.
