A metric tracking the health of the US economy has just posted its highest monthly score since August 2022, and crypto analysts say it could signal a turnaround for Bitcoin, which is trading at $78,000.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a measure of manufacturing activity in the US, recorded a score of 52.6 in January, beating the market consensus of about 48.5 and ending 26 consecutive months of economic contraction, ISM stated in a report on Monday.
The index score is a closely watched metric by investors and the Federal Reserve in assessing economic strength, inflation risks, and whether to tighten or ease monetary policy.
A score above 50 indicates the economy is expanding, while a score below 50 indicates it is contracting. The last time the ISM reading was above 52.6 was in August 2022.
Bitcoin analysts say the strong ISM reading could signal a turnaround for Bitcoin after it hit a 10-month low of $75,442 on Monday.
Data show that the rise and fall of the manufacturing index from mid-2020 to 2023 closely mirrored Bitcoin’s (BTC) price changes over the same period.
“Historically, these PMI reversals mark the shift to risk-on conditions,” Strive’s vice president of Bitcoin strategy, Joe Burnett, said, pointing out that Bitcoin has rallied after rises in the manufacturing output index score in 2013, 2016, and 2020.
Pseudonymous Bitcoin analyst, Plan C, added: “If you don’t upgrade your understanding of the Bitcoin cycle from the 4-year halving mirage mindset to a business cycle / macro mindset fast… You will miss the boat completely on the second massive leg of this Bitcoin bull market!”
On the other hand, Into The Cryptoverse founder and CEO Benjamin Cowen noted that Bitcoin doesn’t always move in lockstep with the manufacturing index, adding that “Bitcoin is not the economy.”
The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell or remained flat across several months last year while Bitcoin rose toward its $126,080 high.
BTC price predictions are far and wide
Bitcoin has seen a turbulent few months since the Oct. 10 liquidation event, when over $19 billion in leveraged crypto positions were suddenly liquidated from the ecosystem.
At its current price, Bitcoin is down nearly 38% from its October high, while precious metals and the stock market have mostly trended upward, prompting a fall in Bitcoin market sentiment.
Institutional investors have varying opinions on how Bitcoin would fare in 2026.
Related: 4 reasons why $75K may have been Bitcoin’s 2026 price bottom
In a 2026 prediction report, crypto venture capital firm Dragonfly said Bitcoin would trade above $150,000 by the end of the year, while Fundstrat research head Tom Lee on Jan. 20 tipped Bitcoin would retrace further before making a late-stage comeback and set a new high.
Galaxy Digital took a pass on making a prediction and said 2026 would be “too chaotic” to even guess, saying Bitcoin could end up anywhere between $50,000 and $250,000.
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