Can September’s Dip Set The Stage For A Q4 Rally?

Bitcoin is once again testing a critical support zone, and speculation is whether September’s weakness will mark a turning point. With historical patterns often showing September dips followed by strong Q4 rallies, the market now faces a pivotal moment that could decide the next major move.

Bitcoin Returns To The Bull Market Support Band

In his latest update on X, Benjamin Cowen highlighted that Bitcoin recently touched the bull market support band just a few days before September officially began. This level has historically acted as an important pivot zone, where the bulls often attempt to hold the line and defend broader market structure. Maintaining strength above this band could play a vital role in preserving bullish sentiment.

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He explained further that August established a local high, suggesting that September may be shaping up to form a local low. In his analysis, this type of alternating cycle between highs and lows is common in Bitcoin’s price behavior, especially during transitional phases of the market.

Benjamin Cowen also pointed out that the beginning of September already saw Bitcoin trading lower than any level observed in August. This underlines how quickly market conditions can shift, with price action flipping from bullish in late summer to more cautious as the new month begins. 

The analyst stated that the best-case scenario would be if Bitcoin’s monthly low had already been established on September 1st. If that is the case, bulls could regain confidence sooner rather than later, stabilizing price action around the bull market support band. Such development would enable a healthier market structure and potentially lay the groundwork for another leg higher as the month progresses.

Historical Cycles Suggest Q4 Upside If Support Holds

In his analysis, Benjamin Cowen explained that the ideal scenario for Bitcoin would be to hold steady at the 20-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) throughout September. He noted that in previous bull cycles, including 2013, 2017, 2020, and 2021, Bitcoin successfully maintained this level before climbing to new highs in Q4, making it a key historical pattern to watch.

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Cowen further emphasized that if Bitcoin fails to sustain the 20W SMA, attention should shift to the 50W SMA, which has consistently served as a strong foundation during the ongoing bull market. This level remains a crucial safety net for maintaining broader bullish momentum, even if short-term weakness emerges.

As of September 3, 2025, Bitcoin is trading around $111,053, up 0.83% over the past 24 hours, with an intraday high of $111,716 and a low of $108,505, showing moderate volatility. The 24-hour trading volume is approximately $73.2 billion, reflecting healthy market activity, while Bitcoin’s market capitalization stands at about $2.22 trillion, solidifying its position as the leading cryptocurrency.

Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com