Bitcoin is trading just above $113,000, with realized cap rising steadily and spending activity led overwhelmingly by coins younger than three months. Profit realization remains positive, short-term holders hover around breakeven, and older supply shows little sign of distribution.
Bitcoin closed Aug. 20 at $113,599, marking a 7.9% drop in the past week, a 3.3% decline over 30 days, but still a 1.7% gain across 90 days. Spot turnover has cooled: notional volume averaged $2.68 billion per day over the past week, below the 30-day average of $2.88 billion. The moderation in activity follows weaker weekly performance but doesn’t necessarily reflect panic selling, as on-chain flows suggest orderly profit realization rather than stress.
The realized cap, a measure of the aggregate cost basis of all coins in circulation, stands at $1.04 trillion. Over the last seven days, it added $8.98 billion; across the past 30 days, it rose by $34.85 billion. These gains line up almost exactly with net realized profit and loss.
NRPL shows a seven-day sum of $8.59 billion and a 30-day sum of $33.25 billion. The small residual gaps ($0.39 billion over 7 days and $1.60 billion over 30 days) match the dollar value of new issuance from block rewards.
At current subsidy rates of 3.125 BTC per block, roughly 450 BTC enter circulation daily, worth about $366 million across 7 days and $1.58 billion across 30 days at recent prices. This reconciliation shows that realized-cap growth is explained entirely by realized gains and miner issuance, with no unexplained distortions in the ledger.
SOPR metrics confirm the picture of steady profit-taking without signs of distress. Adjusted SOPR is at 1.028; its seven-day average is 1.033. Across the last 30 days, it closed above 1 every single day, meaning aggregate spending consistently happened in profit.
Short-term holder SOPR sits at 0.995, with a seven-day average at 1.002 and 24 of the last 30 days closing above 1. This reflects marginal breakeven conditions for recent buyers, some selling at cost and some at a small gain.
In contrast, the long-term holder SOPR is far higher at 1.718, with all 30 of the last 30 days above 1 and an average of 2.21. The long-term supply that does move is doing so at very high profit multiples, consistent with periodic trimming rather than broad exits.
Spent output age band data shows the dominance of young coin churn. On Aug. 19, 94.95% of all spent outputs came from coins younger than three months. Within that, same-day churn was the largest component, with 0–1 day coins making up 83.27% of the total, followed by 1–7 day coins at 7.49%. The 1–3 month band contributed only 1.42%. Coins between three and twelve months old made up 2.97% of spent supply, while coins older than one year accounted for just 2.08%. Over the past seven days, the younger-than-three-month share averaged 95.98%, with older-than-one-year coins averaging 1.95%. Over the past 30 days, the split was even more tilted, with young coins averaging 97.14% and older supply just 1.41%. The implication is that nearly all turnover comes from highly liquid recent supply, not long-dormant coins.
The lack of long-term holder distribution is reinforced by coin days destroyed. CDD stands near 15.6 million, in line with its 30-day mean, with no outlier spikes exceeding two standard deviations over the past 180 days. Historically, large bursts of CDD signal movement of very old supply into the market, often preceding distribution phases. Their absence suggests older coins remain dormant despite profitable conditions.
NUPL, at 0.537, with a 30-day average of 0.561, continues to place the market in the Belief/Denial zone. This means a large share of supply is held in profit, consistent with ongoing profit-taking and supply turnover without broad capitulation. The 30-day data for NUPL is low frequency, so it is better treated as a regime gauge than a short-term oscillator. Still, the reading signals that most coins are comfortably in the money.
Correlation analysis sharpens the distinction between flows. Over the past 90 days, the strongest link to returns is short-term holder SOPR, with a correlation of +0.36. Adjusted SOPR shows only a weak positive link at +0.05, while long-term holder SOPR is nearly uncorrelated at +0.01.
This matches the age-band data: short-term cost bases are where price action is most sensitive. Older supply moves have been marginal and not price-determining in recent months. Analysis showed similarly weak correlations between returns and NRPL (+0.08), CDD (−0.03), and spot volume (−0.13), reinforcing the conclusion that short-term profitability dominates marginal flows.
The data shows a market in distribution without stress. Price performance has cooled, and volume is down slightly, but realized cap is rising in line with issuance-adjusted realized profits. Profit-taking is steady, STH SOPR balances near breakeven, and long-term SOPR shows occasional high-profit sales without broad exits. Nearly all activity is driven by recent coins, with old supply quiet and no spikes in CDD. This combination points to rotation within the active float rather than a structural exit of deep supply.
In the next few days, the focal point will be whether the short-term holder SOPR maintains its delicate balance above 1. A decisive shift below 1 across several consecutive days would signal that recent buyers are capitulating, which historically accelerates drawdowns. As of now, the data shows stability: new supply is digested, profits are crystallized, but stress is absent.
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