Data shows the spot ETFs and Strategy have absorbed more Bitcoin than Satoshi’s stack since the asset was last at $63,000, yet the asset has returned to the same level.
Bitcoin Could Be Headed Toward The Realized Price
In a new post on X, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju has talked about the latest crash in the Bitcoin price. Since mid-May, the cryptocurrency has gone through a significant drawdown that has taken its value from a high above $81,000 all the way down to the $63,000 level. A major part of this decline has come in June alone, with BTC even hitting a brief low below the $62,000 mark.
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The latest downturn has interestingly arrived despite some positive developments in the market. Young Ju pointed out that since BTC was at $63,000 in March 2024, the asset’s supply has gone through a distribution shift. The spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), investment vehicles introduced in the United States in 2024, have absorbed 509,102 BTC inside this window. Meanwhile, Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, has added 650,706 BTC to its holdings.
To put things into perspective, Satoshi’s BTC wallets hold about 1 million tokens, while the combined supply absorbed by the spot ETFs and Strategy equals more than 1.24 million tokens. Even all centralized exchanges combined hold a total of 2.7 million BTC, providing another comparison for the accumulation. “More BTC than Satoshi’s stack, nearly half of exchange reserves, has been absorbed, and price is still back at the same level,” noted the CryptoQuant founder.
As for how much the drawdown can extend from here, perhaps the Realized Price can provide some hints. This on-chain metric tracks the cost basis of the average wallet on the Bitcoin network.
Here is a chart that shows how this indicator has changed for BTC over the last few years:
The metric appears to have been on the decline in recent months | Source: @ki_young_ju on X
As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Realized Price has seen a drop recently as investors have participated at the lower bear market prices. Currently, the metric’s value stands at $53,800.
So far, BTC has managed to stay a notable distance above the Realized Price, but historically, bear markets have only concluded when the asset has ventured below this line. “I thought that level would be hard to revisit, given institutional inflows and MSTR barely selling any BTC,” said Young Ju. “But current price action suggests unusually strong sell pressure.”
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It now remains to be seen whether Bitcoin will manage to hold above the Realized Price this cycle or if the same pattern as before will play out again.
BTC Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $63,200, down more than 13% in the last seven days.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
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