Bitcoin May Not Deliver Moonvember As Hoped: Analysts

November might not turn out to be Bitcoin’s saving grace after all, as crypto analysts signal the cryptocurrency could break from its historically strong price gains in November and instead trade sideways.

“The current macro backdrop easing policy, but mixed communication from the Fed, supports consolidation as a necessary stabilising phase before volatility can expand again,” Bitfinex analysts said in a markets report on Tuesday.

The analysts added that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell “hinted at uncertainty” on the prospect of another 25-basis-point rate cut when the Fed meets in December.

Fed rate cut odds at less than 70%

Odds for previous cuts over the past two months have hovered near 90% or higher, but the market now sees just a 67.9% chance of another cut at the Fed’s Dec. 10 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Fed rate cuts and expectations of further cuts are generally bullish for crypto, as investors tend to shift away from perceived safer assets, such as term deposits and bonds, in pursuit of higher returns. 

However, widespread expectations of continued Fed rate cuts mean that any indication of the Fed pausing or reversing course could spook crypto market participants.

Bitfinex analysts said that Bitcoin (BTC) optimists may start to become less patient if the price doesn’t return above $116,000. “They are showing signs of waning conviction,” the analysts said, pointing to the ongoing sellers among long-term holders.

“Unless the price recovers decisively above this range, time becomes a growing headwind for bulls.”

Bitcoin is trading at $103,000 at the time of publication, down almost 3% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap.

However, not all analysts are anticipating muted price action as November has traditionally been a strong month for Bitcoin to gain. 

November typically Bitcoin’s strongest month

Since 2013, Bitcoin has averaged a 41.78% gain during November, according to CoinGlass. Some analysts suggest that history will repeat itself.

Crypto trader Dave Weisberger said Bitcoin’s “fundamentals are strong.”

“Context is VERY constructive relative to previous’ cycles’ and we are at the BOTTOM, not the top of the range, relative to other financial assets,” he said.

Related: Bitcoin price fills CME gap, but ‘$240M market dump’ stops a $104K rebound

Meanwhile, crypto analyst Carl Runefelt said in an X post on Tuesday that “November will turn green again for Bitcoin soon.”

“Those big green candles are coming,” he said. Similarly, crypto trader AshCrypto said he is “still bullish.”

However, Bitcoin has not been able to regain the same momentum after reaching new all-time highs of $125,100 in early October, following the Oct. 10 market crash that wiped out around $19 billion in leveraged positions from the crypto market.

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