Bitcoin Hits $74.5K But Futures Data, Macro Signal Caution

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin derivatives remain bearish as traders hedge against a price drop despite BTC reclaiming the $74,000 level.

Fears of a global energy shortage mount as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, forcing investors into safe-haven Treasury assets.

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed above $74,000 on Monday, following gains on the Nasdaq Index as investors await a keynote from Nvidia (NVDA US) CEO Jensen Huang at the chipmaker’s biggest event of the year, the Nvidia GTC 2026 global AI conference. A drop in oil prices and growth in the US manufacturing sector also helped support risk-on assets.

Despite this bullish background, Bitcoin derivatives suggest professional traders were unfazed by the rally that pushed prices to a 40-day high.

The annualized Bitcoin monthly futures premium relative to spot markets stood at a meager 2% on Monday, well below the neutral 4% to 8% range. This lack of enthusiasm has been the norm for the past 30 days, likely reflecting traders’ discomfort as Bitcoin traded down 31% in six months while gold gained 18% and the Nasdaq 100 Index stayed flat.

While it is difficult to pin down the exact drivers behind the price weakness, it can be partially attributed to a handful of events, including the absence of a clear execution timeline for the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Meanwhile, the historic $19 billion liquidation event on Oct. 10, 2025, flushed out over-leveraged long positions and hit market makers’ risk appetite. 

Furthermore, fears over quantum computing vulnerabilities emerged while Bitcoin decoupled from gold and silver as capital sought safety from the US and Israel-Iran war and signs of weakness in the US job market.

Bitcoin options signal fear despite institutional buying streak

The Bitcoin options delta skew on Deribit remained at 13% on Monday, signaling persistent fear that have dominated the market for five weeks. When whales and market makers avoid downside exposure, put (sell) options tend to trade at a 6% or higher premium relative to call (buy) instruments. The recent rally to $74,500 was unable to change traders’ sentiment.

USD stablecoins traded at a 0.5% premium relative to the official US dollar to yuan exchange rate on Monday, suggesting a balanced inflow and outflow in the region. Heightened demand for Bitcoin usually pushes the indicator above the 1.5% neutral threshold. At the same time, periods of stress typically cause stablecoins to trade at a discount when trades rush to exit cryptocurrency markets.

Regardless of the outcome of the Nvidia GTC 2026 event, investors are closely tracking the development of the war in Iran. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate oil prices held near $95 per barrel after the US struck Iranian military assets late Friday night, while drone strikes reportedly halted oil loadings at the key port Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates, according to Yahoo Finance.

Related: Metaplanet raises $255M and adds warrant structure for Bitcoin buys

The Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important shipping lane for oil, reportedly remains “essentially closed,” causing analysts to reassess the risk of a “prolonged global energy shock.” Yields in the US 5-year Treasury dropped to 3.82% after peaking at 3.87% on Thursday, indicating that investors sought protection in government-backed assets amid the increasing uncertainty.

Bitcoin’s bullish momentum has been supported by Strategy buying 22,337 BTC during the previous week alone, while US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs netted 11,117 BTC in inflows. Despite institutional appetite, the lack of confidence in Bitcoin derivatives is strong evidence that bear-market sentiment is not over.