Will Trump Strike Out or Make a Comeback in Congress This Week?

The saga continues. Congress is back in session today, and it’s time to pick up yet again all the legislative battles so dramatically set down last week. Will the Senate reauthorize FISA before it expires in just four days? Can the upper chamber’s hard-won reconciliation bill clear the lower without further amendment? And will the two houses agree to stop President Donald Trump from taking further action in Iran? The stakes are high, and the end is nigh.

Bill Pulte and the $1.776 Billion Elephant in the Room

Aside from the House-passed war powers resolution regarding Iran, the conflicts preventing Republicans from presenting a unified front stem largely from the president’s settlement with the IRS. His planned $1.776 billion anti-weaponization fund has lawmakers on both sides of the aisle all in a tizzy because he announced it to Congress rather than requesting its appropriation.

After a recent court ruling banning it, for now, the Trump administration has declared it wouldn’t go forward with the fund. But that wasn’t good enough for many. Both right after its announcement and just last week in the Senate, this controversial anti-weaponization fund proved to be a wrench in the legislative gears. By Thursday, May 21, the Senate seemed set to vote on the ICE and CBP reconciliation bill – and was expected to pass it. The House was poised to do the same the next day. But Tuesday’s announcement by Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche turned heads hot and feet cold in both chambers.

Rather than address the legislative issue, the two halves of Congress declared a recess and left the Swamp. They came back on June 1 to pick up the pieces – but, of course, they didn’t fully finish any one thing. Then on June 2, Trump earned the ire of his Republican colleagues in Congress yet again by nominating Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency and Chairman of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Bill Pulte to replace retiring Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard.

Wednesday, the House went on to pass a war powers resolution demanding an end to the Trump administration’s military actions in Iran, leaving the president’s legislative agenda untouched. Then, over the next two days, the Senate passed the much ballyhooed reconciliation bill to fund ICE and Border Patrol through the end of Trump’s presidency – but not until more than a dozen Republicans at various times joined with Democrats to push poison pill amendments targeting everything from the IRS fund and Pulte’s appointment to funds for the White House ballroom and the immigration agencies themselves. Some even came quite close to passing, with one infamously hinging on a single Republican senator’s decision for almost three hours. Finally, the Senate gaveled out after refusing to take up the FISA Section 702 spy powers reauthorization with seven Republicans citing concerns over Pulte’s nomination. As both chambers called it quits for the weekend, they left the same legislative logjam waiting to be cleared.

Will Congress Reach a Resolution – Or Kick the Can Down the Road Yet Again?

The House meets again at noon today, and the Senate starts up at 3 p.m. Will they actually resolve anything, though? That’s the question. President Trump reacted to the Republican revolt last week by backpedaling on the two big issues. Pulte will only hold the role of DNI temporarily, he said, and the anti-weaponization fund won’t move forward. But will that be enough to appease the angry lawmakers?

If the Senate doesn’t pass the House-amended FISA reauthorization this week, the Section 702 authority to conduct warrantless surveillance will expire on Friday. If the House passes the Senate’s hard-won reconciliation bill, Trump can get it signed into law just a week or so after his self-imposed June 1 deadline. Better late than never, right? But if even just four House republicans balk – or if they amend it at all – it’s back to the drawing board. Finally, Will the two chambers unite against the president over fighting Iran or will the GOP toe the line and shoot it down?

Two legislative packages the president wants passed and one he definitely doesn’t – as the late, great Meatloaf famously sang, “two out of three ain’t bad.” But any other outcome will mean another bad week indeed for Trump in Congress.

What is a reconciliation bill?

A reconciliation bill is a special procedure that allows the Senate’s 60-vote filibuster rule to be bypassed – but only on certain types of fiscal issues.

How does a reconciliation bill work?

Reconciliation bills pass by simple majority (51 votes) and can’t be filibustered – but there are a few catches. The legislation is limited to only provisions that directly affect federal spending, revenues, or the debt ceiling; it’s subject to unlimited amendments up to a certain time limit; and it can only be used so many times.

How often can a reconciliation bill be used?

Reconciliation can technically be used three times per fiscal year – once for federal spending, once for the statutory debt limit, and once for taxes – but, because of the difference between calendar years and fiscal years, there could be more in a single legislative session. Most of the time, however, it’s used only once or twice a year.