Turkey seen playing double post-war role

After the low reached by relations between Israel and Turkey in the past two years, including an almost complete halt to trade, will we see a return to normal with the end of the war in the Gaza Strip? What are the interests currently guiding Turkey, which on the one hand was involved in pressuring Hamas to agree to the US plan for a ceasefire and the return of the hostages, and on the other hand wants to see Hamas survive?

“For Turkey, keeping Hamas as part of the Palestinian political setup is an important interest,” explains Dr. Gallia Lindenstrauss, a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). “At the same time, Turkey looks upon Israel as a player that has become too strong and needs to be restrained, that could even reach Turkey if it is not stopped.

“As far as Israel is concerned, it is not desirable that Turkey should be part of the negotiation mechanism vis-à-vis Hamas, but the US forced this on it. Trump sees Erdogan as a leader who can deliver the goods, someone with whom he can do business, as evidenced by the fact that Turkey was involved in the talks to end the war, and an agreement was indeed achieved.”

As to whether Turkey will continue to support Hamas, Lindenstrauss says, “This is one thing about which Erdogan has always been consistent. Turkey hosts Hamas people and allows Hamas to smuggle cash. In that sense, Turkey is important to Hamas’s survival, and it also has levers of pressure on the organization.

“The questions still remaining relate to implementation of the stages of the agreement on demilitarization of the Gaza Strip. Will Hamas still have weapons? Will Hamas be part of the administration of the Gaza Strip the day after, whether publicly or behind the scenes? In my opinion, Turkey will continue to press for Hamas to be part of the picture in a way that is very problematic for Israel in the long term.”

What do you think are the red lines that Israel should insist upon in relation between Turkey and Hamas from now on?

“Turkey has always claimed that it only supports the political aspect of Hamas, not its military wing. If Turkey allows Hamas to act militarily against Israel, even from Syrian territory, Israel will clearly have to act determinedly. I would advise Israel not to allow a situation in which the international force that arises in the Gaza Strip includes the Turkish army. That would be an opening to big trouble later on. You have to take into account that a president sits in the White House who is a fan of Erdogan and thinks that he is one of the people who sorts out the Middle East for him.”

Is there hope of commercial relations getting back on track? Of a restoration of the flights?

“There are reports that Turkish Airlines wants to renew its flights to Ben Gurion Airport. It could be that some of the trade will be restored. The reason for that is that the Turks understand that influence on the Palestinian issue goes via entry to Israel from Ben Gurion Airport. For that to happen, there have to be normal working relations with Israel. Therefore, all through the war, Turkey did not break off diplomatic relations with Israel. Formally speaking, the ambassadors could return to Ankara and Tel Aviv tomorrow morning. If things move in a positive direction towards rehabilitation of the Gaza Strip, I see Turkey restoring flights to Israel, and, to some extent, trade as well.

“Turkey will also want to be involved in rehabilitating the Gaza Strip, since a lot of international money will apparently be invested in the project, and companies involved in rehabilitation and construction could gain a great deal.”

Published by Globes, Israel business news – en.globes.co.il – on October 12, 2025.

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