Nifty analysis: Analysts warn of further weakness if Nifty fails to hold 24,500 level

Nifty has declined for five straight weeks and may remain under pressure this week as well. The index faces immediate resistance in 24,800–25,000 zone, with support at 24,500. A break below this level could trigger a deeper sell-off. Healthcare, cement, and FMCG sectors may exhibit relative strength, while caution is advised in IT and metal stocks.

RAJESH PALVIYA

HEAD OF TECHNICAL & DERIVATIVES RESEARCH, AXIS SECURITIES

Where is Nifty headed this week? On weekly chart, Nifty has formed a bearish candle with a long upper shadow, indicating selling pressure near 25,000 level. The index is currently trading below 50-day moving average, reflecting a bearish bias. It continues to face resistance at the upper band of the falling channel, near 25,000. A decisive breakout above this level could shift the bias to bullish, while a drop below 24,500 may lead to further profit booking. A sustained move above 24,800 could trigger buying interest, potentially taking the index to 25,000–25,300 range. On the downside, a break below 24,500 may drag the index toward 24,350–24,000. Expect Nifty to trade within a broad range of 25,300–24,000 this week, with a negative bias. The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below its reference line and is trending downward, reinforcing the bearish momentum.

Trading Strategy: For traders with a moderately bearish view for week ending Aug 7, a Put Spread strategy could offer controlled exposure to the downside. Buy one lot of Nifty 24,600 strike Put (premium: Rs 155–165) and sell one lot of 24,300 strike Put (premium: Rs 60–65). The breakeven point is 24,495, with profits below this level. The maximum loss is Rs 7,875, and the maximum potential reward is Rs 14,625.

Sectors to watch: Healthcare, cement, and FMCG may continue to show strength. Bullish On: Asian Paints, Hindustan Unilever, Fortis Healthcare, TVS Motor, Ambuja Cements, and JSL. Bearish On: Adani Enterprises, Tata Motors, and Indigo.

ROHAN SHAH TECHNICAL ANALYST, ASIT C. MEHTA INVESTMENT Where is Nifty headed this week? Nifty has posted a fiveweek losing streak after facing resistance at a bearish gap and now fallen below the 10-week EMA, which had acted as intermediate support since April 2025. A decisive break below 24,500 — aligning with a key demand zone and the 20-week EMA — could accelerate profit booking and take the index toward 24,000– 23,800. Resistance lies at 25,400–25,600.

Trading Strategy: The broader market remains under pressure. It is prudent to focus on sectors and stocks showing stronger relative strength with bullish structures. FMCG has shown resilience, rebounding from a longterm support zone. HUL, Colgate-Palmolive, and Dabur appear attractive for accumulation. In the two-wheeler space, Hero MotoCorp and Bajaj Auto have held firm at support levels. Sectors like pharma, defence, and oil & gas have breached key support levels and warrant caution.

AJIT MISHRA SVP – RESEARCH, RELIGARE BROKING

Where is Nifty headed this week? Nifty extended its losing streak into the fifth week, driven by persistent selling, global headwinds, and cautious sentiment. The index’s close below the 24,600 mark confirms a bearish outlook, unless a strong rebound emerges. Immediate support is at 24,450; a breach may extend the decline toward 24,180 — a level that coincides with the long-term 200-day exponential moving average (DEMA). On recovery, resistance is at 24,800, followed by a significant hurdle around 25,000–25,250.

What should investors do? Defensive positioning is prudent in the short term, while selective accumulation on dips in fundamentally strong stocks may offer longterm opportunities.

Bullish Bias: Britannia, Dixon Technologies, Fortis, Godrej Consumer, Hero MotoCorp, Jio Financial, Jindal Stainless, Kaynes Tech and TVS Motor.

Bearish Bias: ABB, Astral, Bandhan Bank, Bharat Forge, Coal India, IndusInd Bank, ONGC, Sona BLW, Tata Motors, Tata Tech and Wipro.