Midterm Battle Lines Drawn in Arizona

Arizona held its primaries on July 21 and there were no real surprises, but this southwest desert state sits perhaps at the heart of the left-right political divide in America – a divide that, metaphorically, is now bigger than the Grand Canyon, just up the road a bit. Once deep red but now purple (with a distinct blue tint), the Copper State looms large over the electoral landscape.

Republican Rep. Andy Biggs handily won the GOP gubernatorial primary with 71.5% of the votes, as of 11:30 pm ET. The Associated Press called the race at 10:03 pm ET because the math already made clear which of the four GOP contenders was taking the top spot.

Biggs will challenge incumbent Democrat Gov. Katie Hobbs in November.

Arizona Districts to Watch in November

Republican David Schweikert, who currently represents Arizona’s 1st congressional district, notched a distant second place in the gubernatorial primary. His open seat will be fought over in November between former NFL kicker Jay Feely, running as a Republican, and Democrat Amish Shah, a former Arizona state representative. In 2024, Shar won the same nomination, but lost out to Schweikert in that year’s general election.

In the state’s 4th congressional district, Democrat incumbent Greg Stanton will face a November challenge from physician and political commentator Zuhdi Jasser, who ran uncontested in the Republican primary. Jasser’s appearance on the midterm scene is an interesting contrast to the Democrats’ growing number of Islamist candidates and officeholders. A Muslim and co-founder of the Muslim Reform Movement, US Navy veteran Jasser is an outspoken critic of political Islam.

To run for governor of Arizona, Biggs gave up his 5th district seat, which will now be contested by former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, endorsed by President Donald Trump, and Democrat Elizabeth Lee.

Come the November midterm elections, the 6th district in Arizona will be drawing perhaps the most attention. It is currently in Republican hands, but Democrats see incumbent Rep. Juan Ciscomani as vulnerable and believe this district is one of the keys to pulling control of the House of Representatives away from Republicans.

Republican Weak Link?

It’s not all puppies and rainbows for the Democrats, though. Their challenger in the 6th district, JoAnna Mendoza – who ran unopposed – is very much a “woke” progressive who has had some explaining to do, regarding her evident obsession with sexually explicit social media accounts and her past remarks about wishing to decriminalize prostitution. The latter idea may find acceptance in Democrat voter ranks – perhaps – and among libertarians (though they are not likely to make that one issue their vote decider), but it likely doesn’t sit well with more traditional voters. Still, this is a top target district for Democrats.

Arizona has nine congressional districts, six of which are currently held by Republicans and three by Democrats. Only one incumbent, Stanton, faced a primary challenge, which he easily overcame. But two of those Republican seats are now open, and so Arizona could possibly look even more blue, come January 2027. Then again, Shah fell short two years ago in his bid to claim the 1st district seat and Lamb, the former sheriff, may well be sitting comfortably in the race for the open 5th district seat when Democrats are generally seen as soft on crime.

But it’s Arizona, so anything could happen.