Mid and smallcaps get the money as Nifty lags

The Advance-Decline Ratio (ADR), a widely watched indicator of overall market health, was above one for May, pointing to growing investor confidence in mid and small-cap stocks despite weakness in the headline index.

The monthly average ADR reading of all BSE stocks continued to remain strong as the ratio remained above one for two consecutive months. In May, the ratio was at 1.06 while the reading was at 1.5 in April, the highest since June 2020 in nearly six years. In June, the ratio has advanced to 0.86 as of Monday.

“The domestic investors continued to pump money into equities and midcaps typically attract retailers,” said Jay Vora, technical analyst, Mirae Asset Sharekhan. “The large-caps however, bore the brunt of the foreign sell off,” he said.

The Nifty Midcap 100 index hit a record high in May and jumped 3.2% during the month, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 index rose 0.7%. The benchmarks Nifty and Sensex fell 2% and 2.8% respectively.

“Benchmark Nifty and the smallcap index remained 8-9% away from their peaks in May, while the midcap index scaled a fresh new high in the month,” said Nilesh Jain, VP-head of Technical and Derivative Research, Centrum Finverse.

“This led to the divergence between the advance-decline ratio and benchmark Nifty,” Jain said.

Jain added that the smallcaps had slumped 24% from peaks but recovered almost 20% signaling that the rebound could sustain.

An advancing Advance-Decline Ratio means more stocks are gaining and points to a strengthening market. While benchmark Nifty is likely to remain in a range, the broader market is expected to relatively outperform.

“The midcap index is holding above its breakout levels in May, and the momentum seems to be picking up in the smallcap index as well,” said Vipin Kumar, AVP Equity Research & PMS (Derivatives & Technical Analyst), Globe Capital Market. For the Nifty Midcap 100, gains could extend to 63,500 levels while the Smallcap 100 index is expected to test its record high around 19,600 in June, he said.

“The midcaps and smallcaps are likely to outperform while the Nifty is anticipated to remain in a range with a negative bias,” said Jain. “The largecaps are not looking promising currently and are likely to remain under pressure,” he said.