MARKETS strategy: Midcaps, consumption and cement to lead market upside in H2: Pankaj Pandey

“On the consumption side, there are multiple triggers in place. Whether it is FMCG or autos, we are pinning a lot of hopes on the second half for volume revival. So far, volumes have been muted, but we have enough triggers—from GST to the 8th Pay Commission, which may come into effect next year, along with tax benefits. As a result, the entire consumption basket looks strong. Even niche categories like hotels are looking particularly good, making them another sector to watch,” says Pankaj Pandey, Head Research, ICICIdirect.com.While we often speak about the IT sector, the start of the earnings season was a miss for the larger IT players as their earnings came in weaker. However, we are now seeing a comeback in the IT space. We also categorically mentioned earlier that one should keep an eye on mid-cap IT companies, as that is where conviction will start to build. Having said that, in the first half of the year, we saw several challenges coming from the global front, and Indian markets had to digest a lot of uncertainties. Moving into the second half, the earnings season began with a mixed bag, but it was soon followed by positive developments—government measures, liquidity support, economic indicators, and encouraging data points. What, according to you, will act as the trigger? Do you see a festive mood for the domestic market and an upsurge over the next five months?Pankaj Pandey: Oh yes, the second half looks quite good for a number of sectors. For example, in cement, while Q2 might be soft because of the monsoon, the overall sense is that EBITDA per tonne will be maintained. The sector already had a good Q1 and is expected to continue doing well. Similarly, in steel, we may not see an improvement in EBITDA per tonne, but we definitely expect stronger volume growth, which should help.On the consumption side, there are multiple triggers in place. Whether it is FMCG or autos, we are pinning a lot of hopes on the second half for volume revival. So far, volumes have been muted, but we have enough triggers—from GST to the 8th Pay Commission, which may come into effect next year, along with tax benefits. As a result, the entire consumption basket looks strong. Even niche categories like hotels are looking particularly good, making them another sector to watch.

We are also positive on tier-II beneficiaries of real estate. For example, in the pipe sector, we expect benefits in the second half from channel inventory restocking, along with better volume growth. Accordingly, companies like Astral and Supreme look attractive.

Even for banks, while Q2 will see maximum margin pressure, from Q3 onwards things should improve. So, overall, the second half looks far more promising, and that is why we believe Nifty levels around 27,000 should not be a big challenge—except for export-oriented sectors.

On the insurance plays—we were just speaking with Niva Bupa—but considering companies like HDFC Life, SBI Life, Star Health, and Max Financial, now that GST on insurance premiums is proposed to be zero, do they make good investment cases?Pankaj Pandey: The second half should be better for insurance plays. However, with GST at zero percent and without input tax credit, there could be margin challenges since companies may have to pass on some benefits. From that perspective, I am not very bullish on insurance. What we like more are AMCs. Inflows have been robust, and with overall AUM growth plus inflows, this segment can easily deliver mid- to high-teen growth from a long-term perspective. Companies like HDFC AMC and Nippon look quite attractive to us.Staying on the GST theme—given the rate rejig that is underway—what other sectors, apart from staples, stand to benefit? What about cement and two-wheelers?Pankaj Pandey: For cement, the GST reduction will result in around a ₹25 decline per 50 kg bag, which is clearly positive. Last year, the sector’s growth was muted at just 4%, but this year we expect more normalised growth, with most pricing hikes holding up. We like the cement pack across the board—from UltraTech and Ambuja to smaller names like Sagar Cements and JK Lakshmi.Autos are another major beneficiary. While two-wheelers are already a penetrated category, four-wheelers are expected to do better. We have been positive on M&M, our top pick, but Maruti also stands to gain significantly since cars remain aspirational and volumes have been muted. In two-wheelers, we prefer Eicher Motors because of its aspirational products, and recent volumes have been strong. So, both two- and four-wheelers should do well.For CVs, I am not very confident as growth will be challenging, with companies guiding for mid-single-digit growth. So, we are less focused there. But PVs and two-wheelers look much stronger after the GST cut.

What is your take on Godrej Properties? How do you see this news impacting the stock, and what is your overall outlook on the realty pack?Pankaj Pandey: In real estate, tax cuts and lower interest rates will start benefiting the sector, but this advantage will largely accrue to tier-II and mid-segment players. The premium segment is already doing well, and much of that upside has been factored in. I don’t have a specific view on Godrej Properties, but overall, geography-specific challenges exist. For example, the E-Khata issue in Bangalore or super-premium demand moderating in NCR. So, one needs to be selective.

We like larger players like DLF, which have a balance between annuity and retail businesses. Max Estates is another name we like, along with Arvind SmartSpaces. Overall, we are more positive on home-building products than on developers themselves. Price corrections in home-building products have been decent, and things are looking up for them—pipe companies, for example. So, we are relatively more positive on the home-building segment than on the broader real estate sector.