Housing market: A gauge of future home sales just turned negative despite 9 weeks of falling mortgage rates

Pending home sales, or signed contracts leading up to a sale, fell for the first time in nearly three months, slipping about 1% during the four weeks ending Sept. 21 compared to a year earlier, according to a Redfin report on Thursday.

That’s despite the weekly average mortgage rate sliding for nine consecutive weeks, hitting an 11-month low of 6.26% after reaching 6.8% at the start of the summer.

Meanwhile, separate data from the National Association of Realtors on Thursday showed that sales of existing homes dipped 0.2% in August from the prior month. While they were up 1.8% from a year ago, the recent trend still points to a stagnant housing market.

To be sure, lower mortgage rates have sparked a surge in at least one corner of the housing market. Redfin pointed out that mortgage applications to refinance homes jumped 58% in the second week of September from the prior week.

But mortgage-purchase applications edged up just 3%, and the anemic sales data are dashing hopes that cheaper borrowing costs will quickly jump start the housing market.

Redfin highlighted four factors weighing on housing demand: still-elevated home prices, would-be buyers waiting for mortgage rates to go below 6%, muted supply of new listings, and economic uncertainty.

Those waiting for mortgage rates to fall further may have already missed their chance, as borrowing costs have started to tick higher again.

According to Mortgage News Daily, top-tier 30-year fixed rates were in the high 6.3% range on Friday, flat from the previous Friday but up from 6.1% range in the first half of last week.

That’s as recent economic data have come in hot, lowering expectations for aggressive rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. As a result, Treasury yields have rebounded, lifting borrowing costs elsewhere, including mortgage rates.

Meanwhile, job growth hasn’t been as robust as other indicators have been, casting gloom over the housing market. In addition, uncertainty about President Donald Trump’s tariffs and recession fears still linger, according to Redfin.

“A lot of buyers are hesitating because they’re worried about potentially losing their jobs, losing money in their stock portfolio, and the economy in general,” said Josh Felder, a Redfin Premier agent in San Francisco, in a statement. “Many of the buyers who are moving forward are making offers with contingencies, and are willing to walk away during the inspection period if they don’t get the concessions they want.”