The projection of 10% nominal GDP growth for the financial year starting April 1, 2026, is a realistic assumption, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Sunday.Addressing a question during the post-Budget interaction, Sitharaman noted that easing inflation supports the government’s outlook. “Inflation in India has moderated and has stayed at lower levels for some time. While inflation is not the only deflator, it remains a key factor. On that basis, the assumption of nominal GDP growth is realistic,” she said.According to the Budget documents, India’s GDP in absolute terms is pegged at Rs393 lakh crore. She added that the 10% nominal GDP estimate has been calculated using the current GDP base year and the existing methodology.
Meanwhile, the government is preparing to revise the base year for several key macroeconomic indicators, including GDP and retail inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), later this month. The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) is scheduled to release new statistical series with updated base years on February 27.
Under the revised framework, National Accounts data will adopt 2022–23 as the new base year and will be released on February 12, while the CPI revision is expected by the end of February.Once the updated series come into effect, historical data will be recalculated, potentially reshaping growth rates, inflation patterns, and nominal values that underpin the government’s fiscal projections.
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